The distribution of outcomes is much more achievable and much more useful than determining the one true way some specific thing will evolve. Like, it’s actually in-principle achievable, unlike making a specific pointlike prediction of where a molecular ensemble is going to be given a starting configuration (QM dependency? Not merely a matter of chaos). And it’s actually useful, in that it shows which configurations have tightly distributed outcomes and which don’t, unlike that specific pointlike prediction.
What does “the distribution of outcomes” mean? I feel like you’re just not understanding the issue.
The interaction of chemical A with chemical B might always lead to chemical C; the distribution might be a fixed point there. Yet you may need a quantum computer to tell you what chemical C is. If you just go “well I don’t know what chemical it’s gonna be, but I have a Bayesian probability distribution over all possible chemicals, so everything is fine”, then you are in fact simulating the world extremely poorly. So poorly, in fact, that it’s highly unlikely you’ll be able to design complex machines. You cannot build a machine out of building blocks you don’t understand.
Maybe the problem is that you don’t understand the computational complexity of quantum effects? Using a classical computer, it is not possible to efficiently calculate the “distribution of outcomes” of a quantum process. (Not the true distribution, anyway; you could always make up a different distribution and call it your Bayesian belief, but this borders on the tautological.)
The distribution of outcomes is much more achievable and much more useful than determining the one true way some specific thing will evolve. Like, it’s actually in-principle achievable, unlike making a specific pointlike prediction of where a molecular ensemble is going to be given a starting configuration (QM dependency? Not merely a matter of chaos). And it’s actually useful, in that it shows which configurations have tightly distributed outcomes and which don’t, unlike that specific pointlike prediction.
What does “the distribution of outcomes” mean? I feel like you’re just not understanding the issue.
The interaction of chemical A with chemical B might always lead to chemical C; the distribution might be a fixed point there. Yet you may need a quantum computer to tell you what chemical C is. If you just go “well I don’t know what chemical it’s gonna be, but I have a Bayesian probability distribution over all possible chemicals, so everything is fine”, then you are in fact simulating the world extremely poorly. So poorly, in fact, that it’s highly unlikely you’ll be able to design complex machines. You cannot build a machine out of building blocks you don’t understand.
Maybe the problem is that you don’t understand the computational complexity of quantum effects? Using a classical computer, it is not possible to efficiently calculate the “distribution of outcomes” of a quantum process. (Not the true distribution, anyway; you could always make up a different distribution and call it your Bayesian belief, but this borders on the tautological.)