Thanks for pointing this out. Having recently looked at Ohio County KY, I think this is correct. %ill there max’d out at above 1% the typical range but has since dropped below 0.4% of the typical range and started rising again (which is notable in contrast with seasonal trends) [Edit to point out that this is true for many counties in the Kentucky/Tennessee area]. This basically demonstrates that having a reported %ill now that is lower than previous in the Kinsa database is insufficient to show r0<1. Probably best to stick with the prior of containment failure.
Thanks for pointing this out. Having recently looked at Ohio County KY, I think this is correct. %ill there max’d out at above 1% the typical range but has since dropped below 0.4% of the typical range and started rising again (which is notable in contrast with seasonal trends) [Edit to point out that this is true for many counties in the Kentucky/Tennessee area]. This basically demonstrates that having a reported %ill now that is lower than previous in the Kinsa database is insufficient to show r0<1. Probably best to stick with the prior of containment failure.