As far as I can tell the major disagreements are about us having a plan and taking a pivotal act. There seems to be general “consensus” (Unclear, Mostly Agree, Agree) about what the problems are and how an AGI might look. Since no pivotal acts is needed either you think that we will be able to tackle this problem with the resources we have and will have, you have (way) longer timelines (let’s assume Eliezer timeline is 2032 for argument’s sake) or you expect the world to make a major shift in priorities concerning AGI.
Am I correct in assuming this or am I missing some alternatives ?
There’s a fair amount of disagreement within the team as well. I’ll try to say some things that I think almost everyone on the team would agree with but I could easily be wrong about that.
you think that we will be able to tackle this problem with the resources we have and will have
Presumably even on a pivotal act framing, we also have to execute a pivotal act with the resources we have and will have, so I’m not really understanding what the distinction is here? But I’m guessing that this is closest to “our” belief of the options you listed.
Note that this doesn’t mean that “we” think you can get x-risk down to zero; it means that “we” think that non-pivotal-act strategies reduce x-risk more than pivotal-act strategies.
I understood the phrase pivotal act more in the spirit of out-off distribution effort. To rephrase it more clearly: Do “you” think an out-off distribution effort is needed right now ? For example sacrificing the long term (20 years) for the short term (5 years) or going for high risk-high reward strategies.
Or should we stay on our current trajectory, since it maximizes our chances of winning ? (which as far as I can tell is “your” opinion)
As far as I can tell the major disagreements are about us having a plan and taking a pivotal act. There seems to be general “consensus” (Unclear, Mostly Agree, Agree) about what the problems are and how an AGI might look. Since no pivotal acts is needed either you think that we will be able to tackle this problem with the resources we have and will have, you have (way) longer timelines (let’s assume Eliezer timeline is 2032 for argument’s sake) or you expect the world to make a major shift in priorities concerning AGI.
Am I correct in assuming this or am I missing some alternatives ?
(I’m on the DeepMind alignment team)
There’s a fair amount of disagreement within the team as well. I’ll try to say some things that I think almost everyone on the team would agree with but I could easily be wrong about that.
Presumably even on a pivotal act framing, we also have to execute a pivotal act with the resources we have and will have, so I’m not really understanding what the distinction is here? But I’m guessing that this is closest to “our” belief of the options you listed.
Note that this doesn’t mean that “we” think you can get x-risk down to zero; it means that “we” think that non-pivotal-act strategies reduce x-risk more than pivotal-act strategies.
I misused the definition of a pivotal act which makes it confusing. My bad!
I understood the phrase pivotal act more in the spirit of out-off distribution effort. To rephrase it more clearly: Do “you” think an out-off distribution effort is needed right now ? For example sacrificing the long term (20 years) for the short term (5 years) or going for high risk-high reward strategies.
Or should we stay on our current trajectory, since it maximizes our chances of winning ? (which as far as I can tell is “your” opinion)
To the extent I understand you (which at this point I think I do), yes, “we” think we should stay on our current trajectory.