By soon I mean 5 years. Interestingly, I have a slightly higher probability that it will be solved within 20 years, which highlights the difficulty of saying ambiguous things like “soon.”
That is interesting! I should be clear that my odds ratios are pretty tentative given the uncertainty around the challenge. For example, I literally woke up this morning and thought that my 1⁄3 odds might be too conservative given recent progress on 8th grade science tests and theorem proving.
I created three PredictionBook predictions to track this if anyone’s interested (5 years, 10 years, 20 years).
By soon I mean 5 years. Interestingly, I have a slightly higher probability that it will be solved within 20 years, which highlights the difficulty of saying ambiguous things like “soon.”
That is interesting! I should be clear that my odds ratios are pretty tentative given the uncertainty around the challenge. For example, I literally woke up this morning and thought that my 1⁄3 odds might be too conservative given recent progress on 8th grade science tests and theorem proving.
I created three PredictionBook predictions to track this if anyone’s interested (5 years, 10 years, 20 years).