The so-called “nonsense” community prediction is still more accurate on average than Manifold for the same questions.
https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/15359/predictive-performance-on-metaculus-vs-manifold-markets/
wow, what! I really didn’t see that coming. it … is in fact the median of the community predictions, though, right?
I compared the Manifold forecasts with the community prediction on Metaculus and calculated a time-averaged Brier Score to score forecasts over time.
For Binary Questions, the Community Prediction is a weighted median of the individual forecaster probabilities.
This is where I got the idea it was a median. Looks a little more complex than I remembered. Very interesting. https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#community-prediction
The so-called “nonsense” community prediction is still more accurate on average than Manifold for the same questions.
https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/15359/predictive-performance-on-metaculus-vs-manifold-markets/
wow, what! I really didn’t see that coming. it … is in fact the median of the community predictions, though, right?
This is where I got the idea it was a median. Looks a little more complex than I remembered. Very interesting. https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#community-prediction