I compared the Manifold forecasts with the community prediction on Metaculus and calculated a time-averaged Brier Score to score forecasts over time.
For Binary Questions, the Community Prediction is a weighted median of the individual forecaster probabilities.
This is where I got the idea it was a median. Looks a little more complex than I remembered. Very interesting. https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#community-prediction
This is where I got the idea it was a median. Looks a little more complex than I remembered. Very interesting. https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#community-prediction