What would you think of a musician who decided to give a public performance without so much as looking at the piece she was going to play? Would you not be inclined to say: “It’s all very well to test yourself, but please do it in private”?
The central thrust of Eliezer’s post is a true and important elaboration of his concept of improper humility, but doesn’t it overlook a clear and simple political reality? There are reputational effects to public failure. It seems clear that those reputational effects often outweigh whatever utility is gained from an empirical “test” of one’s own abilities: this is why international relations theory isn’t a rigorous empirical science. We live in an irrational kaleidescope of power, driven by instinct and emotion, ordered only fleetingly by rhetoric and guile. In this situation, we need to keep our cards close to our chest if we want to win.
Mulciber adds something along the same lines:
By increasing the challenge the way you suggest, you may very well be acting rationally toward the goal of testing yourself, but you’re not doing all you can to cut the opponent. To rationally pursue winning the debate, there’s no excuse for not doing your research.
And Eliezer does seem to approve of this mode of thinking in some cases:
Of course this is only a way to think when you really are confronting a challenge just to test yourself, and not because you have to win at any cost. In that case you make everything as easy for yourself as possible. To do otherwise would be spectacular overconfidence, even if you’re playing tic-tac-toe against a three-year-old.
So, to sum up my concern, how is this principle of pragmatism reconciled to your choice not to prepare? Isn’t it best to test yourself in the peace and safety of your dojo, or in circumstances where the stakes are not high, and use every means available to resist on the actual field of battle?
gjm asks wisely:
The central thrust of Eliezer’s post is a true and important elaboration of his concept of improper humility, but doesn’t it overlook a clear and simple political reality? There are reputational effects to public failure. It seems clear that those reputational effects often outweigh whatever utility is gained from an empirical “test” of one’s own abilities: this is why international relations theory isn’t a rigorous empirical science. We live in an irrational kaleidescope of power, driven by instinct and emotion, ordered only fleetingly by rhetoric and guile. In this situation, we need to keep our cards close to our chest if we want to win.
Mulciber adds something along the same lines:
And Eliezer does seem to approve of this mode of thinking in some cases:
So, to sum up my concern, how is this principle of pragmatism reconciled to your choice not to prepare? Isn’t it best to test yourself in the peace and safety of your dojo, or in circumstances where the stakes are not high, and use every means available to resist on the actual field of battle?