The relationship between “expected evidence” and hindsight bias ought to be carefully considered. Since the set of plausible “just-so” explanations is effectively infinite, it’s quite difficult to anticipate them in a formal decision model and assess their probability. You are focusing on a tiny fraction of explanations for which we can come up with testable evidence: this is not a convincing argument.
The relationship between “expected evidence” and hindsight bias ought to be carefully considered. Since the set of plausible “just-so” explanations is effectively infinite, it’s quite difficult to anticipate them in a formal decision model and assess their probability. You are focusing on a tiny fraction of explanations for which we can come up with testable evidence: this is not a convincing argument.