Admittedly this is me thinking worst case scenario, where no technology can reliably improve the speed of getting to those technologies.
If I had to compute an average case, I’d operationalize the following predictions:
Will a quantum computer be sold to 10,000+ customers with a qubit count of at least 1,000 by 2100? Probability: (15-25%.)
Will superconductors be used in at least 1 grid in Europe, China or the US by 2100? Probability: (10-20%).
Will reversible computers be created by a company with at least $100 million in market cap by 2100? Probability: (1-5%).
Now I’m somewhat pessimistic about reversible computers, as they may not exist, but I think there’s a fair chance of superconductors and quantum computers by 2100.
My understanding is that a true quantum computer would be a (mostly) reversible computer as well, by virtue of quantum circuits being reversible. Measurements aren’t (apparently) reversible, but they are deferrable. Do you mean something like… in practice, quantum computers will be narrowly reversible, but closer to classical computers as a system because they’re forced into many irreversible intermediate steps?
Not really. I’m focused on fully reversible systems here, as they theoretically allow you to reverse errors without dissipating any energy, so the energy stored there can keep on going.
It’s a great advance, and it’s stronger than you think since we don’t need intermediate steps anymore, and I’ll link to the article here:
In retrospect, I agree with you @porby that my estimate was way lower than it should be, and I now think that the chances of reversible computing in total until 2100 is more like 50-90% than 2-3%.
Could you elaborate on this? I’m pretty surprised by an estimate that low conditioned on ~normalcy/survival, but I’m no expert.
Admittedly this is me thinking worst case scenario, where no technology can reliably improve the speed of getting to those technologies.
If I had to compute an average case, I’d operationalize the following predictions:
Will a quantum computer be sold to 10,000+ customers with a qubit count of at least 1,000 by 2100? Probability: (15-25%.)
Will superconductors be used in at least 1 grid in Europe, China or the US by 2100? Probability: (10-20%).
Will reversible computers be created by a company with at least $100 million in market cap by 2100? Probability: (1-5%).
Now I’m somewhat pessimistic about reversible computers, as they may not exist, but I think there’s a fair chance of superconductors and quantum computers by 2100.
Thanks!
My understanding is that a true quantum computer would be a (mostly) reversible computer as well, by virtue of quantum circuits being reversible. Measurements aren’t (apparently) reversible, but they are deferrable. Do you mean something like… in practice, quantum computers will be narrowly reversible, but closer to classical computers as a system because they’re forced into many irreversible intermediate steps?
Not really. I’m focused on fully reversible systems here, as they theoretically allow you to reverse errors without dissipating any energy, so the energy stored there can keep on going.
It’s a great advance, and it’s stronger than you think since we don’t need intermediate steps anymore, and I’ll link to the article here:
https://www.quantamagazine.org/computer-scientists-eliminate-pesky-quantum-computations-20220119/
But I’m focused on full reversibility, ie the measurement step can’t be irreversible.
In retrospect, I agree with you @porby that my estimate was way lower than it should be, and I now think that the chances of reversible computing in total until 2100 is more like 50-90% than 2-3%.