I think it’s pretty unlikely that scaling literally stops working, maybe I’m 5-10% that we soon get to a point where there are only very small or negligible improvements to increasing compute. But I’m like 10-20% on some weaker version.
A weaker version could look like there are diminishing returns to performance from scaling compute (as is true), and this makes it very difficult for companies to continue scaling. One mechanism at play is that the marginal improvements from scaling may not be enough to produce the additional revenue needed to cover the scaling costs, this is especially true in a competitive market where it’s not clear scaling will put one ahead of their competitors.
In the context of the post, I think it’s quite unlikely that I see strong evidence in the next year indicating that scaling has stopped (if only because a year of no-progress is not sufficient evidence). I was more so trying to point to how there [sic] are contingencies which would make OpenAI’s adoption of an RSP less safety-critical. I stand by the statements that scaling no longer yielding returns would be such a contingency, but I agree that it’s pretty unlikely.
I think it’s pretty unlikely that scaling literally stops working, maybe I’m 5-10% that we soon get to a point where there are only very small or negligible improvements to increasing compute. But I’m like 10-20% on some weaker version.
A weaker version could look like there are diminishing returns to performance from scaling compute (as is true), and this makes it very difficult for companies to continue scaling. One mechanism at play is that the marginal improvements from scaling may not be enough to produce the additional revenue needed to cover the scaling costs, this is especially true in a competitive market where it’s not clear scaling will put one ahead of their competitors.
In the context of the post, I think it’s quite unlikely that I see strong evidence in the next year indicating that scaling has stopped (if only because a year of no-progress is not sufficient evidence). I was more so trying to point to how there [sic] are contingencies which would make OpenAI’s adoption of an RSP less safety-critical. I stand by the statements that scaling no longer yielding returns would be such a contingency, but I agree that it’s pretty unlikely.