A 30% probability version: the US bungles the crisis so badly and so thoroughly, the pandemic and the shutdowns will last months and result in a domino effect causing a downturn comparable to the Great Depression and lasting years. In the meantime, China will recover and rebound quickly and offer a support package to bail out the ailing West, an equivalent of the Marshall plan. Just like the latter heralded several decades of US domination, the former will commence the new Pax Sinica, Chinese domination over the world, with unclear but not necessarily negative consequences.
Sure, you can move the comment around as you see fit. 30% ballpark because China appears to be much more competent at minimizing the impact, and the US is still not even acknowledging the number of cases they likely have, and are doing half-measures, which is the worst possible approach. Yet, even with a likely depression coming, there are too many uncertainties as to how the situation might develop. If I was 90% sure, I’d probably buy stock options or bet on Chinese currency firming up against US dollar.
China is not going to recover and rebound quickly if they have no herd immunity. They’re either going to have to be on permanent war footing, decide that the number of deaths they will face is acceptable. All the best epidemiology modeling I’ve said points to a resurgence in cases in any country that does a complete lockdown (a la China) for only a few months.
Just look at the Neil Ferguson study if you want an understanding of the likely impact of various interventions.
A 30% probability version: the US bungles the crisis so badly and so thoroughly, the pandemic and the shutdowns will last months and result in a domino effect causing a downturn comparable to the Great Depression and lasting years. In the meantime, China will recover and rebound quickly and offer a support package to bail out the ailing West, an equivalent of the Marshall plan. Just like the latter heralded several decades of US domination, the former will commence the new Pax Sinica, Chinese domination over the world, with unclear but not necessarily negative consequences.
Interesting. Where is 30% coming from? Also, do you mind if this gets moved to Answers?
Sure, you can move the comment around as you see fit. 30% ballpark because China appears to be much more competent at minimizing the impact, and the US is still not even acknowledging the number of cases they likely have, and are doing half-measures, which is the worst possible approach. Yet, even with a likely depression coming, there are too many uncertainties as to how the situation might develop. If I was 90% sure, I’d probably buy stock options or bet on Chinese currency firming up against US dollar.
China is not going to recover and rebound quickly if they have no herd immunity. They’re either going to have to be on permanent war footing, decide that the number of deaths they will face is acceptable. All the best epidemiology modeling I’ve said points to a resurgence in cases in any country that does a complete lockdown (a la China) for only a few months.
Just look at the Neil Ferguson study if you want an understanding of the likely impact of various interventions.