“but still no AGI or commercial nuclear fusion, despite these having constantly been predicted to be in the next 25 years for the last 60 years.
Please clarify this plainly for me: Are you saying these technologies will NEVER be developed? Not in 25 year, nor in 100 years, nor in 500 years, nor in 10,000 years?
Is your whole disagreement a matter of timescales—whether it is likely to happen to happen within our lifetimes or not?
Because if so, then there are a lot of us here who likewise don’t expect to see AGI in our lifetimes.
If you’re not saying “It will NEVER happen” then please specify a date by which time you’d assigning Probability > 50% of these technologies to have happened.
But until then, again your whole argument seems to be “it hasn’t happened yet, so it will never happen.”
Please clarify this plainly for me: Are you saying these technologies will NEVER be developed? Not in 25 year, nor in 100 years, nor in 500 years, nor in 10,000 years?
Is your whole disagreement a matter of timescales—whether it is likely to happen to happen within our lifetimes or not?
Because if so, then there are a lot of us here who likewise don’t expect to see AGI in our lifetimes.
If you’re not saying “It will NEVER happen” then please specify a date by which time you’d assigning Probability > 50% of these technologies to have happened.
But until then, again your whole argument seems to be “it hasn’t happened yet, so it will never happen.”