So what is Siobhan’s power? We have Del’s actions to confirm that she has one, but what evidence did Carlisle have that he was so convinced? If Carlisle only saw Siobhan herself carrying out her plans, then it could be that Siobhan is simply of the mindset that puts together elaborate plans in a way that emphasizes fallback positions, and her actual power is something like a supernatural talent for Indy Ploys. However, if Carlisle saw others carrying out Siobhan’s plans, and they still worked well enough to convince him that she was a witch and not merely a good planner, then that power must affect others as well as herself, invalidating the theory that Siobhan is simply supernaturally competent at achieving her goals in a way unrelated to plans. The obvious conclusion is that her power is the mode of thought that attempts to put together plans with great regard for the possible holes therein; the alternate hypothesis is that her power somehow contaminates plans she devises with Essence of Success, or something, which is really reaching and not consistent with how witchcraft has so far worked here.
Carlisle had (as was described in Book 1) really bad evidence. The way I’m cashing out Siobhan’s power (which is confirmed in canon only by an asterisk next to her name in the Breaking Dawn character list, not by any actual achievement of hers during the book… for some reason there’s not even a scene with her talking to Eleazar about it while they’re in the same house...) is that when she makes a good plan based on good info, it will tend not to fall prey to black swan events and will tend to fall into the outcome she envisions rather than turning out in some wacky unexpected fashion.
it will tend not to fall prey to black swan events and will tend to fall into the outcome she envisions rather than turning out in some wacky unexpected fashion.
Fascinating. So she’s immune to tropes. I could see that being very useful.
So does this extend as well to other people carrying out her plan? It could be some sort of generalized psychic ability that tries to make events go as she wills them to, but requires a level of concentration achieved by planning it out in detail. Whatever; it seems that the results are well enough defined, even if the implied method is odd.
does this extend as well to other people carrying out her plan?
Insofar as she makes plans that appeal reasonably well to the people carrying them out. Bella wouldn’t be significantly influenced here, but as long as Siobhan makes a plan of typical quality for her, Bella doesn’t have a reason to be contrary either.
So what is Siobhan’s power? We have Del’s actions to confirm that she has one, but what evidence did Carlisle have that he was so convinced? If Carlisle only saw Siobhan herself carrying out her plans, then it could be that Siobhan is simply of the mindset that puts together elaborate plans in a way that emphasizes fallback positions, and her actual power is something like a supernatural talent for Indy Ploys. However, if Carlisle saw others carrying out Siobhan’s plans, and they still worked well enough to convince him that she was a witch and not merely a good planner, then that power must affect others as well as herself, invalidating the theory that Siobhan is simply supernaturally competent at achieving her goals in a way unrelated to plans. The obvious conclusion is that her power is the mode of thought that attempts to put together plans with great regard for the possible holes therein; the alternate hypothesis is that her power somehow contaminates plans she devises with Essence of Success, or something, which is really reaching and not consistent with how witchcraft has so far worked here.
Carlisle had (as was described in Book 1) really bad evidence. The way I’m cashing out Siobhan’s power (which is confirmed in canon only by an asterisk next to her name in the Breaking Dawn character list, not by any actual achievement of hers during the book… for some reason there’s not even a scene with her talking to Eleazar about it while they’re in the same house...) is that when she makes a good plan based on good info, it will tend not to fall prey to black swan events and will tend to fall into the outcome she envisions rather than turning out in some wacky unexpected fashion.
Fascinating. So she’s immune to tropes. I could see that being very useful.
So does this extend as well to other people carrying out her plan? It could be some sort of generalized psychic ability that tries to make events go as she wills them to, but requires a level of concentration achieved by planning it out in detail. Whatever; it seems that the results are well enough defined, even if the implied method is odd.
Insofar as she makes plans that appeal reasonably well to the people carrying them out. Bella wouldn’t be significantly influenced here, but as long as Siobhan makes a plan of typical quality for her, Bella doesn’t have a reason to be contrary either.