Would it have helped if I added the attached paragraphs (in the paper, page 3, cut for brevity)?
Frame the conclusion as a disjunction: “either we construe ‘gambler’s fallacy’ narrowly (as by definition irrational) or broadly (as used in the blog post, for expecting switches). If the former, we have little evidence that real people commit the gambler’s fallacy. If the latter, then the gambler’s fallacy is not a fallacy.”
This seems to be an argument against the very idea of an error. How can people possibly make errors of reasoning? If the gambler knows the die rolls are independent, how could they believe in streaks? How could someone who knows the spelling of a word possibly mistype it? There seems to be a presumption of logical omniscience and consistency.
Would it have helped if I added the attached paragraphs (in the paper, page 3, cut for brevity)?
Frame the conclusion as a disjunction: “either we construe ‘gambler’s fallacy’ narrowly (as by definition irrational) or broadly (as used in the blog post, for expecting switches). If the former, we have little evidence that real people commit the gambler’s fallacy. If the latter, then the gambler’s fallacy is not a fallacy.”
This seems to be an argument against the very idea of an error. How can people possibly make errors of reasoning? If the gambler knows the die rolls are independent, how could they believe in streaks? How could someone who knows the spelling of a word possibly mistype it? There seems to be a presumption of logical omniscience and consistency.