Why are you calling this a nitpick? IMO it’s a major problem with the post—I was very unhappy that no mention was made of this obvious problem with the reasoning presented.
Because the central idea of the post isn’t really about that specific probability puzzle, and can in theory stand alone to succeed or fail on other merits—regardless of whether that illustrative example in particular is actually a good choice of example.
Possibly there are better examples in the full paper linked, but I couldn’t comment on that either way because I’ve only read this excerpt/summary.
Why are you calling this a nitpick? IMO it’s a major problem with the post—I was very unhappy that no mention was made of this obvious problem with the reasoning presented.
Because the central idea of the post isn’t really about that specific probability puzzle, and can in theory stand alone to succeed or fail on other merits—regardless of whether that illustrative example in particular is actually a good choice of example.
Possibly there are better examples in the full paper linked, but I couldn’t comment on that either way because I’ve only read this excerpt/summary.