I think Teerth’s second statement is mathematically equivalent to their original statement (modulo strict versus non-strict inequality), and Richard’s untangling is incorrect.
Let A be the proposition that members of the Bush Administration had definite prior information of the events of 9/11 or played a role in it. Let P(X) denote the credence in a proposition X.
The original statement was as follows:
It is false that P(¬A) > 99%.
Equivalently, P(¬A) ≤ 99%
Equivalently, P(A) > 1%.
Almost equivalently, “there is at least a 1% chance of foreknowledge or involvement”
I think Teerth’s second statement is mathematically equivalent to their original statement (modulo strict versus non-strict inequality), and Richard’s untangling is incorrect.
Let A be the proposition that members of the Bush Administration had definite prior information of the events of 9/11 or played a role in it. Let P(X) denote the credence in a proposition X.
The original statement was as follows:
It is false that P(¬A) > 99%.
Equivalently, P(¬A) ≤ 99%
Equivalently, P(A) > 1%.
Almost equivalently, “there is at least a 1% chance of foreknowledge or involvement”