Main worry I have: Cognitive ability is really unevenly distributed, and an idea from Robin Hanson about anything related to Economics that he thought about for 5 minutes, is probably going to be much more thought-out than a 5-hour research project from an average Econ undergraduate. Epistemically effort seems to indicate that time spent on a post is more important than other factors, though it actually doesn’t rank very highly in my model of what makes a good post.
Certainly agree—the question is “what’s the best social norm we can do here?”
The alternatives are:
1) no disclaimer—just say what you thinkt
2) Epistemic Status (as currently practiced) where Robin Hanson and Joe Somebody both say “I’m pretty confident in this” or “just a musing” or whatever.
3) Epistemic Effort, where Robin Hanson and Joe Somebody both say “I thought about this for 5 minutes”, and depending on how well you know Robin Hanson, you might consider that equal, or you might have past experience which causes you to weight Hanson’s (or Somebody’s) 5 minutes more.
Of those options, I think 3 is best, especially since it lets you know things like how Robin Hanson goes about validating his own claims (I currently have no idea, and honestly I have not actually been especially impressed with Robin Hanson as compared to many other thinkers in our blogosphere).
If you have suggestions for an improvement over #3 or think #1 or #2 are better, I’d be interested in hearing them though. :)
Main worry I have: Cognitive ability is really unevenly distributed, and an idea from Robin Hanson about anything related to Economics that he thought about for 5 minutes, is probably going to be much more thought-out than a 5-hour research project from an average Econ undergraduate. Epistemically effort seems to indicate that time spent on a post is more important than other factors, though it actually doesn’t rank very highly in my model of what makes a good post.
Certainly agree—the question is “what’s the best social norm we can do here?”
The alternatives are:
1) no disclaimer—just say what you thinkt 2) Epistemic Status (as currently practiced) where Robin Hanson and Joe Somebody both say “I’m pretty confident in this” or “just a musing” or whatever. 3) Epistemic Effort, where Robin Hanson and Joe Somebody both say “I thought about this for 5 minutes”, and depending on how well you know Robin Hanson, you might consider that equal, or you might have past experience which causes you to weight Hanson’s (or Somebody’s) 5 minutes more.
Of those options, I think 3 is best, especially since it lets you know things like how Robin Hanson goes about validating his own claims (I currently have no idea, and honestly I have not actually been especially impressed with Robin Hanson as compared to many other thinkers in our blogosphere).
If you have suggestions for an improvement over #3 or think #1 or #2 are better, I’d be interested in hearing them though. :)