There is a problem in that any group that is generating alpha would likely lose alpha/person if they allow random additional people into their group.
Think Renaissance Medallion fund. It’s been closed to outside investment since near its inception 30 years ago. Prerequisites for the average person joining would be something like true-genius level Phd in a related STEM field.
An analogue which is closely related is poker players who use solvers to improve their game. The starting stakes are a bit lower. The solvers are like a few thousand dollars + equipment to run them, a class on how to use them runs a similar couple thousand bucks, and then there is the small matter of memorizing the shape of a few thousand tables. As a side note, I think poker is inherently limited because at the top of the heap, you are fighting for single digit to tens of millions of dollars, which is somewhat chump change in the ultimate scheme of things.
Magic the Gathering is similar (cards+variance+strategy/tactics as alpha).
Crypto is similar because of the variance/volatility. There was a decent pipeline of people who went from MtG->Poker->crypto. However, I don’t think crypto groups are what you are looking for because at this point, the alpha is you.
I’m not sure what the end goal is for individual forecasters. On metaculus you accumulate points for correct predictions and there is a rankings board. So it looks primarily status driven, but it’s hard to put food on the table with this level of status. Maybe when you hit top 100 you get an invite to an exclusive group?
There is a problem in that any group that is generating alpha would likely lose alpha/person if they allow random additional people into their group.
Think Renaissance Medallion fund. It’s been closed to outside investment since near its inception 30 years ago. Prerequisites for the average person joining would be something like true-genius level Phd in a related STEM field.
An analogue which is closely related is poker players who use solvers to improve their game. The starting stakes are a bit lower. The solvers are like a few thousand dollars + equipment to run them, a class on how to use them runs a similar couple thousand bucks, and then there is the small matter of memorizing the shape of a few thousand tables. As a side note, I think poker is inherently limited because at the top of the heap, you are fighting for single digit to tens of millions of dollars, which is somewhat chump change in the ultimate scheme of things.
Magic the Gathering is similar (cards+variance+strategy/tactics as alpha).
Crypto is similar because of the variance/volatility. There was a decent pipeline of people who went from MtG->Poker->crypto. However, I don’t think crypto groups are what you are looking for because at this point, the alpha is you.
There is also the superforecaster group. You can try metaculus.com or reading https://www.amazon.com/Superforecasting-Science-Prediction-Philip-Tetlock/dp/0804136718
I’m not sure what the end goal is for individual forecasters. On metaculus you accumulate points for correct predictions and there is a rankings board. So it looks primarily status driven, but it’s hard to put food on the table with this level of status. Maybe when you hit top 100 you get an invite to an exclusive group?