Let’s assume that half of the deaths of currently infected people have happened, due to the lockdown extending the doubling time from three days to more than a week.
The effects of measures on the spread take weeks to show up in the data.
If the doubling time hadn’t cratered, the hospitalization rate would’ve remained exponential. At the time of posting it was comparatively flat, and I estimated.
The half came from the fact that it usually takes ~3 weeks to die, that the exponential spread had only stopped a few weeks earlier, and a drawing of a triangle and square representing a rise and flat that I drew a vertical line through.
How do you draw that conclusion?
The effects of measures on the spread take weeks to show up in the data.
If the doubling time hadn’t cratered, the hospitalization rate would’ve remained exponential. At the time of posting it was comparatively flat, and I estimated.
The half came from the fact that it usually takes ~3 weeks to die, that the exponential spread had only stopped a few weeks earlier, and a drawing of a triangle and square representing a rise and flat that I drew a vertical line through.