First of all, it is very important to distinguish data from inferences.
Second, the inference is idiotic. It’s probably a calculation error, but it’s just not worth reading to determine what went wrong.
I don’t have a good model to give me any predictions on what reasonable numbers of asymptomatic cases would be, or how truncation influences these numbers. Could you explain why the inference is idiotic, and perhaps give a more reasonable one?
Here are some quotes from the paper. What is the simplest model you can make from them? Forget the word “model”; what conclusions can you draw?
Most of the infections on board the Diamond Princess cruise ship appear to have occurred before or around the start of the 2-week quarantine
the delay, D, between infection and onset of symptomatic infection (i.e. the incubation period) … at 6.4 … days
First of all, it is very important to distinguish data from inferences.
Second, the inference is idiotic. It’s probably a calculation error, but it’s just not worth reading to determine what went wrong.
I don’t have a good model to give me any predictions on what reasonable numbers of asymptomatic cases would be, or how truncation influences these numbers. Could you explain why the inference is idiotic, and perhaps give a more reasonable one?
Here are some quotes from the paper. What is the simplest model you can make from them? Forget the word “model”; what conclusions can you draw?