I like the cuteness of turning an old parlor game into a theory-test. But I suspect a more direct and effective test would be to take one true fact, invert it, and then ask your test subject which statement fits their theory better. (I always try to do that to myself when I’m fitting my own pet theory to a new fact I’ve just heard, but it’s hard once I already know which one is true.)
Other advantages of this test over the original one proposed in the post:
(1) You don’t have to go to the trouble of thinking up fake data (a problematic endeavor, because there is some art to coming up with a realistic-sounding false fact—and also because you actually have to do some research to make sure that you didn’t generate a true fact by accident).
(2) Your test subject only has a 1 in 2 shot at guessing right by chance, as opposed to a 2 in 3 shot.
I like the cuteness of turning an old parlor game into a theory-test. But I suspect a more direct and effective test would be to take one true fact, invert it, and then ask your test subject which statement fits their theory better. (I always try to do that to myself when I’m fitting my own pet theory to a new fact I’ve just heard, but it’s hard once I already know which one is true.)
Other advantages of this test over the original one proposed in the post: (1) You don’t have to go to the trouble of thinking up fake data (a problematic endeavor, because there is some art to coming up with a realistic-sounding false fact—and also because you actually have to do some research to make sure that you didn’t generate a true fact by accident). (2) Your test subject only has a 1 in 2 shot at guessing right by chance, as opposed to a 2 in 3 shot.