Okay, now that we’re a few months into 2021, I feel like updating a bit.
Most notably, there was the insurrection at the Capitol. Political violence of this reference class was mentioned in a couple other users’ answers, and I wish I had explicitly mentioned it in mine. I remain perplexed by the weak response to the insurrection by law enforcement—I certainly would not have predicted that aspect. I think there might be a couple more incidents of this sort, but probably less intense—the peak of organized fervor has passed. More likely is a continuous “low grade smouldering domestic insurgency” as supposed by CellBioGuy.
If Glenn Greenwald is to be believed, there is an impending new surveillance paradigm aiming at domestic threats like the insurrectionists and affecting all Americans—a successor to the Patriot Act from the previous war on terror. This paradigm is supported and advanced by the publishers of The Narrative, who warn that “unfettered” communication leads to radical Trumpism. I don’t think I would have been able to predict this very well in advance. But I also think this will probably not end up as bad as Greenwald supposes. It is more likely that impositions against privacy and free speech will remain politically difficult, and domestic security will be pursued using more narrowly targeted (and less constitutionally questionable) means. But I might put something like 10% on the strong form of Greenwald’s concerns, and moderately higher on a weaker form.
Okay, now that we’re a few months into 2021, I feel like updating a bit.
Most notably, there was the insurrection at the Capitol. Political violence of this reference class was mentioned in a couple other users’ answers, and I wish I had explicitly mentioned it in mine. I remain perplexed by the weak response to the insurrection by law enforcement—I certainly would not have predicted that aspect. I think there might be a couple more incidents of this sort, but probably less intense—the peak of organized fervor has passed. More likely is a continuous “low grade smouldering domestic insurgency” as supposed by CellBioGuy.
If Glenn Greenwald is to be believed, there is an impending new surveillance paradigm aiming at domestic threats like the insurrectionists and affecting all Americans—a successor to the Patriot Act from the previous war on terror. This paradigm is supported and advanced by the publishers of The Narrative, who warn that “unfettered” communication leads to radical Trumpism. I don’t think I would have been able to predict this very well in advance. But I also think this will probably not end up as bad as Greenwald supposes. It is more likely that impositions against privacy and free speech will remain politically difficult, and domestic security will be pursued using more narrowly targeted (and less constitutionally questionable) means. But I might put something like 10% on the strong form of Greenwald’s concerns, and moderately higher on a weaker form.