Russell: thanks for the response. By “external party that had privileged access to your mind”, I just meant a human-like party that knows your current state and knows you as well as you know yourself (not better) but doesn’t have certain interests in the experiment that you had as a participant. Running against a copy is interesting, but assuming it’s a high-fidelity copy, that’s a completely different scenario with (in my estimation) a radically different likelihood of the AI getting out, as you noted when talking about “ordinary sources of information about me”.
To play the devil’s advocate a bit here regarding your comment on probability estimates without statistical data, wasn’t your response actually a “probability estimate without statistical data” (albeit without using numbers)? That is, when you say “at no point was I on the verge of doing it”, I think that’s just another way of expressing some unspecified probability estimate (like “no greater than about 0.9 [or whatever “being on the verge of” subjectively means for you]”).
Russell: thanks for the response. By “external party that had privileged access to your mind”, I just meant a human-like party that knows your current state and knows you as well as you know yourself (not better) but doesn’t have certain interests in the experiment that you had as a participant. Running against a copy is interesting, but assuming it’s a high-fidelity copy, that’s a completely different scenario with (in my estimation) a radically different likelihood of the AI getting out, as you noted when talking about “ordinary sources of information about me”.
To play the devil’s advocate a bit here regarding your comment on probability estimates without statistical data, wasn’t your response actually a “probability estimate without statistical data” (albeit without using numbers)? That is, when you say “at no point was I on the verge of doing it”, I think that’s just another way of expressing some unspecified probability estimate (like “no greater than about 0.9 [or whatever “being on the verge of” subjectively means for you]”).