Lots of the processes in business are nonlinear. And some decisions are “sticky” like investments hiring and sunk costs of all sorts.
Knowing the processes are nonlinear mustn’t automatically allow for prediction. It might merely change the distribution, and it will be difficult to predict where you are there.
An illustrative idea is assuming that you can show that the market moves at times in jumps rather than in smooth continuous fashion.
This might not help you actually predict market moves when you do not know where the point happens where it goes into a jump from a continuous walk.
In fact, many are trying to predict markets using all kinds of well proven phenomena. In the vast majority of cases, those predictions don’t demonstratively work.
Lots of the processes in business are nonlinear. And some decisions are “sticky” like investments hiring and sunk costs of all sorts.
Knowing the processes are nonlinear mustn’t automatically allow for prediction. It might merely change the distribution, and it will be difficult to predict where you are there.
An illustrative idea is assuming that you can show that the market moves at times in jumps rather than in smooth continuous fashion.
This might not help you actually predict market moves when you do not know where the point happens where it goes into a jump from a continuous walk.
In fact, many are trying to predict markets using all kinds of well proven phenomena. In the vast majority of cases, those predictions don’t demonstratively work.