I think you may be confusing the business cycle with market cycles.
Also
anticipate a random walk with an average of 10%/year growth,
I suggest anyone who believes this have a closer look at world wide stock market returns over time. If you cherry pick the most successful of the ~200 markets (ie the US market) and ignore inflation you can maybe get 10% PA returns.
But unless you have evidence that you can pick the most successful market prospectively, then 3-4% after inflation and costs is more like it.
Bear in mind at the start of C20 the US had only recently exited a ruinous civil war, rule of law was limited, there was rampant corruption, etc etc. Which country that (might) looks like this would you pick as the top performer of the next 100 years?
I think Liron only meant the times of growth with those 10%. Looking at the recent stock market you will clearly find growth that is much higher than the long term rate and higher than economy + inflation + “risk free return”. In the last 10 years the annual rate was indeed 10.5% pa
I think you may be confusing the business cycle with market cycles.
Also
I suggest anyone who believes this have a closer look at world wide stock market returns over time. If you cherry pick the most successful of the ~200 markets (ie the US market) and ignore inflation you can maybe get 10% PA returns.
But unless you have evidence that you can pick the most successful market prospectively, then 3-4% after inflation and costs is more like it.
Bear in mind at the start of C20 the US had only recently exited a ruinous civil war, rule of law was limited, there was rampant corruption, etc etc. Which country that (might) looks like this would you pick as the top performer of the next 100 years?
I think Liron only meant the times of growth with those 10%. Looking at the recent stock market you will clearly find growth that is much higher than the long term rate and higher than economy + inflation + “risk free return”. In the last 10 years the annual rate was indeed 10.5% pa