A lot of comments saying various forms of “well but for some situations it *is* best to be random.” Fine, maybe so; but the decision to ‘act randomly’ is arrived after a careful analysis of the situation. It is the most rational thing to do *in that instance.* That doesn’t mean that decision theory is thus refuted at all. Reaching the the conclusion that you’re playing a minmax stochastic game in which the best way forward is to play at random is not at all the same as “might as well just be random all the time in the face of something that seems irrational.”
Acting randomly *all the time* because hey the world is random is in fact useless. Yes, sometimes you’ll hit the right answer (30% of the cards were red after all) but if you’re not engaging in ‘random’ behavior as part of a larger strategy or goal then you’re just throwing everything at the wall and seeing what sticks (granted sometimes brute-forcing an answer is also the best way forward).
Arguing about ‘well in *this one instance* it is best to be random’ is entirely beside the point. The point is how do you reach that conclusion and by what thought processes?
‘If faced with irrationality, throwing your own reason away won’t help you’ is exactly correct. Conversely, when faced with rationality then acting irrationally won’t help you either. Unlike the popular media trope, in real life you’re not really going to baffle and thus defeat the computer opponent by just playing at random. You’re not really going to beat a chess master in the park by just playing randomly in order to confuse them.
A lot of comments saying various forms of “well but for some situations it *is* best to be random.” Fine, maybe so; but the decision to ‘act randomly’ is arrived after a careful analysis of the situation. It is the most rational thing to do *in that instance.* That doesn’t mean that decision theory is thus refuted at all. Reaching the the conclusion that you’re playing a minmax stochastic game in which the best way forward is to play at random is not at all the same as “might as well just be random all the time in the face of something that seems irrational.”
Acting randomly *all the time* because hey the world is random is in fact useless. Yes, sometimes you’ll hit the right answer (30% of the cards were red after all) but if you’re not engaging in ‘random’ behavior as part of a larger strategy or goal then you’re just throwing everything at the wall and seeing what sticks (granted sometimes brute-forcing an answer is also the best way forward).
Arguing about ‘well in *this one instance* it is best to be random’ is entirely beside the point. The point is how do you reach that conclusion and by what thought processes?
‘If faced with irrationality, throwing your own reason away won’t help you’ is exactly correct. Conversely, when faced with rationality then acting irrationally won’t help you either. Unlike the popular media trope, in real life you’re not really going to baffle and thus defeat the computer opponent by just playing at random. You’re not really going to beat a chess master in the park by just playing randomly in order to confuse them.