@Stuart Armstrong:
First of all, the strongest influence on future success in society is whether or not one is already successful (most easily accomplished by having successful parents). One would also expect some percentage of non-rationalists to succeed anyways simply through chance. Assuming that non-rationalists substantially outnumber rationalists, it isn’t terribly surprising to see more of the former among successful people. Rather than looking at how many successful people are rationalists, it would be more informative to look at rational people and see how many become more successful over their lives compared to average. Or, you could try and estimate the likelihoods of being rational, being successful, and being rational given success, then apply Bayes’ law...
Also, if rationalists seem more skilled at avoiding failure than at winning, perhaps that merely suggests that failure is more predictable than success?
@Stuart Armstrong: First of all, the strongest influence on future success in society is whether or not one is already successful (most easily accomplished by having successful parents). One would also expect some percentage of non-rationalists to succeed anyways simply through chance. Assuming that non-rationalists substantially outnumber rationalists, it isn’t terribly surprising to see more of the former among successful people. Rather than looking at how many successful people are rationalists, it would be more informative to look at rational people and see how many become more successful over their lives compared to average. Or, you could try and estimate the likelihoods of being rational, being successful, and being rational given success, then apply Bayes’ law...
Also, if rationalists seem more skilled at avoiding failure than at winning, perhaps that merely suggests that failure is more predictable than success?