“But sometimes experiments are costly, and sometimes we prefer to get there first… so you might consider trying to train yourself in reasoning on scanty evidence, preferably in cases where you will later find out if you were right or wrong. Trying to beat low-capitalization prediction markets might make for good training in this? - though that is only speculation.”
Zendo, an inductive reasoning game, is the best tool I know of to practice reasoning on scanty evidence in cases where you’ll find out if you were right or wrong. My view of the game: one player at a time takes the role of “reality”, which is a single rule classifying all allowed things into two categories. The other players, based on a steadily growing body of examples of correctly classified things and the fact that the other player made up the rule, attempt to determine the rule first. This is fundamentally different from deduction games which traditionally have small hypothesis spaces (Clue − 324, Mystery of the Abbey − 24, Mastermind—I’ve seen 6561) with each hypothesis being initially equiprobable.
I’ve seen variants that can be played online with letters or numbers instead of pyramids, but frankly they’re not nearly as fun.
“But sometimes experiments are costly, and sometimes we prefer to get there first… so you might consider trying to train yourself in reasoning on scanty evidence, preferably in cases where you will later find out if you were right or wrong. Trying to beat low-capitalization prediction markets might make for good training in this? - though that is only speculation.”
Zendo, an inductive reasoning game, is the best tool I know of to practice reasoning on scanty evidence in cases where you’ll find out if you were right or wrong. My view of the game: one player at a time takes the role of “reality”, which is a single rule classifying all allowed things into two categories. The other players, based on a steadily growing body of examples of correctly classified things and the fact that the other player made up the rule, attempt to determine the rule first. This is fundamentally different from deduction games which traditionally have small hypothesis spaces (Clue − 324, Mystery of the Abbey − 24, Mastermind—I’ve seen 6561) with each hypothesis being initially equiprobable.
I’ve seen variants that can be played online with letters or numbers instead of pyramids, but frankly they’re not nearly as fun.