How much time do you think there is between “ability to automate” and “actually this has been automated”? Are your numbers for actual automation, or just ability? I personally would agree to your numbers if they are about ability to automate, but I think it will take much longer to actually automate, due to people’s inertia and normal regulatory hurdles (though I find it confusing to think about, because we might have vastly superhuman AI and potentially loss of control before everything is actually automated.)
Good question, I think I was mostly visualizing ability to automate while writing this. Though for software development specifically I expect the gap to be pretty small (lower regulatory hurdles than elsewhere, has a lot of relevance to the people who’d do the automation, already starting to happen right now).
In general I’d expect inertia to become less of a factor as the benefits of AI become bigger and more obvious—at least for important applications where AI could provide many many billions of dollars of economic value, I’d guess it won’t take too long for someone to reap those benefits.
My best guess is regulations won’t slow this down too much except in a few domains where there are already existing regulations (like driving cars or medical things). But pretty unsure about that.
I also think it depends on whether by “ability to automate” you mean “this base model could do it with exactly the right scaffolding or finetuning” vs “we actually know how to do it and it’s just a question of using it at scale”. For that part, I was thinking more about the latter.
How much time do you think there is between “ability to automate” and “actually this has been automated”? Are your numbers for actual automation, or just ability? I personally would agree to your numbers if they are about ability to automate, but I think it will take much longer to actually automate, due to people’s inertia and normal regulatory hurdles (though I find it confusing to think about, because we might have vastly superhuman AI and potentially loss of control before everything is actually automated.)
Good question, I think I was mostly visualizing ability to automate while writing this. Though for software development specifically I expect the gap to be pretty small (lower regulatory hurdles than elsewhere, has a lot of relevance to the people who’d do the automation, already starting to happen right now).
In general I’d expect inertia to become less of a factor as the benefits of AI become bigger and more obvious—at least for important applications where AI could provide many many billions of dollars of economic value, I’d guess it won’t take too long for someone to reap those benefits.
My best guess is regulations won’t slow this down too much except in a few domains where there are already existing regulations (like driving cars or medical things). But pretty unsure about that.
I also think it depends on whether by “ability to automate” you mean “this base model could do it with exactly the right scaffolding or finetuning” vs “we actually know how to do it and it’s just a question of using it at scale”. For that part, I was thinking more about the latter.