Well it depends. Is the likelihood of it affecting reality around the same likelihood as me torturing everybody with my god powers? If it’s significantly higher then that, I’d argue it’s not an actual pascals mugging. Hard to know exactly where to draw the line though.
If it’s not significantly higher then that, then you have to balance against my threat to torture everybody.
What do we do when there is a very tiny (2^-x) chance that THIS random thing has incredibly huge (O(3^^^^3)) importance?
Well it depends. Is the likelihood of it affecting reality around the same likelihood as me torturing everybody with my god powers? If it’s significantly higher then that, I’d argue it’s not an actual pascals mugging. Hard to know exactly where to draw the line though.
If it’s not significantly higher then that, then you have to balance against my threat to torture everybody.