I mean, the field of AI has been around ~70 years, and it looks to me we’re more than half way through the route to AGI. So even if we got full life extension today it wouldn’t have that much impact for that many people.
Well, about 55 million people die per year, most of them from aging, so solving it for everyone today vs say 50-60 years later with AGI would have saved 2-3 billions of potentially indefinite very very long lives. This definitely counts as “much impact for many people” on my book.
But also, what’s the probability that we will indeed get AGI in the next 50 or 70 years? I mean, I know it’s a hotly debated topic so asking for your personal best estimate.
Sure, it’s a lot compared to most activities, but it’s not a lot compared to the total people who could live in the future lightcone. You have to be clear what you’re comparing to when you say something is large.
My estimate? Oh I dunno. The future is hard to predict, and crazy shit happens by default. But currently I’d be more surprised if it didn’t happen than if it did. So more than 50%, for 50 years. Also more than 50% for 30 years. My guess is there’s a lot of very scalable and valuable products to be made with ML, which will put all the smart people and smart money in the world into improving ML, which is a very powerful force. Shrug. I’d have to think more to try to pin it down more.
I mean, the field of AI has been around ~70 years, and it looks to me we’re more than half way through the route to AGI. So even if we got full life extension today it wouldn’t have that much impact for that many people.
Well, about 55 million people die per year, most of them from aging, so solving it for everyone today vs say 50-60 years later with AGI would have saved 2-3 billions of potentially
indefinitevery very long lives. This definitely counts as “much impact for many people” on my book.But also, what’s the probability that we will indeed get AGI in the next 50 or 70 years? I mean, I know it’s a hotly debated topic so asking for your personal best estimate.
Sure, it’s a lot compared to most activities, but it’s not a lot compared to the total people who could live in the future lightcone. You have to be clear what you’re comparing to when you say something is large.
My estimate? Oh I dunno. The future is hard to predict, and crazy shit happens by default. But currently I’d be more surprised if it didn’t happen than if it did. So more than 50%, for 50 years. Also more than 50% for 30 years. My guess is there’s a lot of very scalable and valuable products to be made with ML, which will put all the smart people and smart money in the world into improving ML, which is a very powerful force. Shrug. I’d have to think more to try to pin it down more.