That’s, like, 99.95% probability, one in two thousand chances. You’d have two orders of magnitude higher chances of survival if you were to literally shoot yourself with a literal gun. I’m not sure you can forecast anything at all (about humans or technologies) with this degree of certainty decades into the future, definitely not that every single one of dozens attempts in a technology you’re not an expert in fail and every single one of hundreds attempts in another technology you’re not an expert in fail (building aligned AGI).
I don’t believe there are any tradeoffs I can make which would give me a 50% chance to live to 300 years.
I don’t believe it either, it’s a thought experiment, I assumed it’d be obvious since it’s a very common technique to estimate how much one should value low probabilities.
I think we’ve found at least one important crux, I’m going to bow out now. I realize I misspoke earlier—I don’t much care if I become convinced, but I very much hope you succeed in keeping me and you and others alive much longer.
That’s, like, 99.95% probability, one in two thousand chances. You’d have two orders of magnitude higher chances of survival if you were to literally shoot yourself with a literal gun. I’m not sure you can forecast anything at all (about humans or technologies) with this degree of certainty decades into the future, definitely not that every single one of dozens attempts in a technology you’re not an expert in fail and every single one of hundreds attempts in another technology you’re not an expert in fail (building aligned AGI).
I don’t believe it either, it’s a thought experiment, I assumed it’d be obvious since it’s a very common technique to estimate how much one should value low probabilities.
I think we’ve found at least one important crux, I’m going to bow out now. I realize I misspoke earlier—I don’t much care if I become convinced, but I very much hope you succeed in keeping me and you and others alive much longer.