In case it’s not clear: I’m not trying to contradict you; I am trying to get advice from you.
Suppose that you got a mysterious note from the future telling you that the demand for home-robotics will increase tenfold in the next decade, and you know this note to be totally reliable. You know nothing else that is not publicly known. What would you do next?
Do more research. Is this even nonpublic knowledge at all? The world economy grows at something like 2% a year, labor costs generally seem to go up, prices of computers and robotics usually falls… Do industry projections expect to grow their sales by <25% a year?
If so, I might spend some of my hypothetical money on whatever the best approximation to a robotics index fund I can find, as the best of a bunch of bad choices. (Checking a few random entries in Wikipedia, maybe a fifth of the companies are publicly traded, so… that will be a pretty small index.) But I wouldn’t be really surprised if in 10 years, I had not outperformed the general market.
I’d advise finding a market bottleneck, like ColTan mining. You’ll see any technology that can replace tantalum capacitors from further away than you’ll manage to see software or design shifts.
By “you know this note to be totally reliable” I assume you mean you have a fair idea how it got there (eg you just built a time portal. with the intention of sending through financial advice, and a hand, bearing the same tattoo you have, pushed through with the note) and not that you’re psychic and literally know things with 100% certainty? IOW you have a high probability estimate that it’s genuine, but not an infinitely high one (seems more realistic and applicable if nothing else.)
In case it’s not clear: I’m not trying to contradict you; I am trying to get advice from you.
Suppose that you got a mysterious note from the future telling you that the demand for home-robotics will increase tenfold in the next decade, and you know this note to be totally reliable. You know nothing else that is not publicly known. What would you do next?
Do more research. Is this even nonpublic knowledge at all? The world economy grows at something like 2% a year, labor costs generally seem to go up, prices of computers and robotics usually falls… Do industry projections expect to grow their sales by <25% a year?
If so, I might spend some of my hypothetical money on whatever the best approximation to a robotics index fund I can find, as the best of a bunch of bad choices. (Checking a few random entries in Wikipedia, maybe a fifth of the companies are publicly traded, so… that will be a pretty small index.) But I wouldn’t be really surprised if in 10 years, I had not outperformed the general market.
I’d advise finding a market bottleneck, like ColTan mining. You’ll see any technology that can replace tantalum capacitors from further away than you’ll manage to see software or design shifts.
By “you know this note to be totally reliable” I assume you mean you have a fair idea how it got there (eg you just built a time portal. with the intention of sending through financial advice, and a hand, bearing the same tattoo you have, pushed through with the note) and not that you’re psychic and literally know things with 100% certainty? IOW you have a high probability estimate that it’s genuine, but not an infinitely high one (seems more realistic and applicable if nothing else.)