I am skeptical of the claim that a substantially new risk profile is here to stay for the long term. The best reference case we have for this pandemic, I think, is the flu pandemic from 100 years ago. At that time we had no vaccines for the pandemic, and furthermore the flu mutates much more easily than covid. Nonetheless, the pandemic was pretty much over in two years or so. Not because there was no flu left in the world, but because humans developed enough immunity to this especially virulent flu that it reduced back to the threat level fo the flus that had been around for many years prior. I expect that something similar will happen with covid. Over the next year or two, humans will continue to develop immunity through vaccination and through infection. Technology for covid treatment will also continue to progress. Covid will stick around indefinitely, but after a couple years it will not present too much larger risk than the coronaviruses that have been around for a long time. Maybe a bit larger but not like it is now.
That being said, there is still the question of whether a couple years is too long to wait before returning to a more normal life. I think it is probably too long, and now that I have gotten my booster I am planning to mostly return to a normal life as best I can, as long as Omicron doesn’t get too bad. The world at large will not return to normal for a while most likely, but as individuals we can decide what risks we are personally willing to take. Eventually ordinary people and politicians will be tired of all the protective measures and move back to a world substantially similar to 2019, at least in most countries. (My prediction for “eventually” is 75% probability within the next 4 years, 50% within the next 2 years, though I’d have to operationalize the claim better to make that a serious prediction.)
The comparison to the mortality rate of 2005 or 1950 doesn’t feel quite right either. That is just looking at the overall mortality rate, but the distribution of mortality has changed as well. I’m fairly certain that compared to 2005 there is way more mortality in developed countries due to infectious diseases that can be spread by asymptomatic people through casual social contact. The particular preventative measures in place are moderately effective at preventing that particular type of mortality. Possibly compared to 1950 as well, though I’m not sure, we’ve made a lot of progress against infectious disease since 1950.
Would we be better off as a society if we dropped the covid prevention measures and focused all those resources on preventing other causes of mortality such as cardiovascular disease? Quite possibly so, but unfortunately we’re not well enough coordinated to do that.
I am skeptical of the claim that a substantially new risk profile is here to stay for the long term. The best reference case we have for this pandemic, I think, is the flu pandemic from 100 years ago. At that time we had no vaccines for the pandemic, and furthermore the flu mutates much more easily than covid. Nonetheless, the pandemic was pretty much over in two years or so. Not because there was no flu left in the world, but because humans developed enough immunity to this especially virulent flu that it reduced back to the threat level fo the flus that had been around for many years prior. I expect that something similar will happen with covid. Over the next year or two, humans will continue to develop immunity through vaccination and through infection. Technology for covid treatment will also continue to progress. Covid will stick around indefinitely, but after a couple years it will not present too much larger risk than the coronaviruses that have been around for a long time. Maybe a bit larger but not like it is now.
That being said, there is still the question of whether a couple years is too long to wait before returning to a more normal life. I think it is probably too long, and now that I have gotten my booster I am planning to mostly return to a normal life as best I can, as long as Omicron doesn’t get too bad. The world at large will not return to normal for a while most likely, but as individuals we can decide what risks we are personally willing to take. Eventually ordinary people and politicians will be tired of all the protective measures and move back to a world substantially similar to 2019, at least in most countries. (My prediction for “eventually” is 75% probability within the next 4 years, 50% within the next 2 years, though I’d have to operationalize the claim better to make that a serious prediction.)
The comparison to the mortality rate of 2005 or 1950 doesn’t feel quite right either. That is just looking at the overall mortality rate, but the distribution of mortality has changed as well. I’m fairly certain that compared to 2005 there is way more mortality in developed countries due to infectious diseases that can be spread by asymptomatic people through casual social contact. The particular preventative measures in place are moderately effective at preventing that particular type of mortality. Possibly compared to 1950 as well, though I’m not sure, we’ve made a lot of progress against infectious disease since 1950.
Would we be better off as a society if we dropped the covid prevention measures and focused all those resources on preventing other causes of mortality such as cardiovascular disease? Quite possibly so, but unfortunately we’re not well enough coordinated to do that.