What are your scenarios for interstellar warfare? The question obviously depends on whatever turns out to be the technically mature way of violent conflict resolution.
Let me propose a naive default guess:
Small technically mature von-neumann probe meets primitive civilization or unsettled system: probe wins.
Small technically mature von-neumann probe meets system with technically almost-mature inhabitants: probe cannot even make problems.
System with dyson swarm + AI: Unassailable on short timescales. Impossible to profitably invade. Maybe sling another star at it if you control the stellar neighbourhood.
In this scenario, interstellar warfare is a matter of land-grabbing: Spam the entire sky with probes, moving as fast as possible, dyson a fraction of stars to keep up the expansion front, and fortify all other systems. “Fortify” might just mean “build and maintain a couple thousand tons of observatories & industrial base”, i.e. almost nothing: One just needs enough headstart to win any inner-system race against later von-neumann probes. This is relevant if the colonizer has reasons to keep most systems mostly virgin, and is compatible with the silent sky.
In this scenario, if we saw an expansion front, we would rush to move from category (1) to (2); this is slightly bad for the big colonizer.
What does “flee” mean in this context? It would mean rushing to grab a bigger slice of the pie. Do I understand you correctly there?
On the other hand, the game-theory appears to suggest that colonization speed dominates stealth, all the time: The only reaction move we have is to do what we should do anyway, if we care about colonizing the universe (if we don’t care then we don’t need to react at all, just keep our system).
So, in summary, I do not understand how the red civilization intends to influence our decision processes by staying stealthy.
What are your scenarios for interstellar warfare? The question obviously depends on whatever turns out to be the technically mature way of violent conflict resolution.
Let me propose a naive default guess:
Small technically mature von-neumann probe meets primitive civilization or unsettled system: probe wins.
Small technically mature von-neumann probe meets system with technically almost-mature inhabitants: probe cannot even make problems.
System with dyson swarm + AI: Unassailable on short timescales. Impossible to profitably invade. Maybe sling another star at it if you control the stellar neighbourhood.
In this scenario, interstellar warfare is a matter of land-grabbing: Spam the entire sky with probes, moving as fast as possible, dyson a fraction of stars to keep up the expansion front, and fortify all other systems. “Fortify” might just mean “build and maintain a couple thousand tons of observatories & industrial base”, i.e. almost nothing: One just needs enough headstart to win any inner-system race against later von-neumann probes. This is relevant if the colonizer has reasons to keep most systems mostly virgin, and is compatible with the silent sky.
In this scenario, if we saw an expansion front, we would rush to move from category (1) to (2); this is slightly bad for the big colonizer.
What does “flee” mean in this context? It would mean rushing to grab a bigger slice of the pie. Do I understand you correctly there?
On the other hand, the game-theory appears to suggest that colonization speed dominates stealth, all the time: The only reaction move we have is to do what we should do anyway, if we care about colonizing the universe (if we don’t care then we don’t need to react at all, just keep our system).
So, in summary, I do not understand how the red civilization intends to influence our decision processes by staying stealthy.