If you count the amount of “wanting to switch” you expect to have because the cable guy hasn’t arrived yet, it should equal exactly the amount of “wishing you hadn’t been wrong” you expect to have if you pick the second half because the cable guy arrived before your window started.
I’m not sure how to say this so it’s more easily parseable, but this equality is exactly what conservation of expected evidence describes.
If you count the amount of “wanting to switch” you expect to have because the cable guy hasn’t arrived yet, it should equal exactly the amount of “wishing you hadn’t been wrong” you expect to have if you pick the second half because the cable guy arrived before your window started.
I’m not sure how to say this so it’s more easily parseable, but this equality is exactly what conservation of expected evidence describes.