This is reasonably close to my beliefs. An additional argument I’d like to add is:
Even if superintelligence is possible, the economic path towards it might be impossible.
There needs to be an economically viable entity pushing AI development forward every step of the way. It doesn’t matter if AI can “eventually” produce 30% worldwide GPD growth. Maybe diminishing returns kick in around GPT-4, or we run out of useful training data to feed to the models (We have very few examples of +6 SD human reasoning, as MikkW points out in a sibling comment).
Analogy: It’s not the same to say that a given species with X,Y,Z traits can survive in an ecosystem, than to say it can evolve from its ancestor in that same ecosystem.
This is reasonably close to my beliefs. An additional argument I’d like to add is:
Even if superintelligence is possible, the economic path towards it might be impossible.
There needs to be an economically viable entity pushing AI development forward every step of the way. It doesn’t matter if AI can “eventually” produce 30% worldwide GPD growth. Maybe diminishing returns kick in around GPT-4, or we run out of useful training data to feed to the models (We have very few examples of +6 SD human reasoning, as MikkW points out in a sibling comment).
Analogy: It’s not the same to say that a given species with X,Y,Z traits can survive in an ecosystem, than to say it can evolve from its ancestor in that same ecosystem.