I think if the question is “what do I do with my altruistic budget,” then investing some of it to cash out later (with large returns) and donate much more is a valid option (as long as you have systems in place that actually make sure that happens). At small amounts (<$10M), I think the marginal negative effects on AGI timelines and similar factors are basically negligible compared to other factors.
10M$ sounds like it’d be a lot for PauseAI-type orgs imo, though admittedly this is not a very informed take.
Anyways, I stand by my comment; I expect throwing money at PauseAI-type orgs is better utility per dollar than nvidia even after taking into account that investing in nvidia to donate to PauseAI later is a possibility.
I do think it’s conceptually nicer to donate to PauseAI now rather than rely on the investment appreciating enough to offset the time-delay in donation. Not that it’s necessarily the wrong thing to do, but it injects a lot more uncertainty into the model that is difficult to quantify.
I think if the question is “what do I do with my altruistic budget,” then investing some of it to cash out later (with large returns) and donate much more is a valid option (as long as you have systems in place that actually make sure that happens). At small amounts (<$10M), I think the marginal negative effects on AGI timelines and similar factors are basically negligible compared to other factors.
10M$ sounds like it’d be a lot for PauseAI-type orgs imo, though admittedly this is not a very informed take.
Anyways, I stand by my comment; I expect throwing money at PauseAI-type orgs is better utility per dollar than nvidia even after taking into account that investing in nvidia to donate to PauseAI later is a possibility.
I do think it’s conceptually nicer to donate to PauseAI now rather than rely on the investment appreciating enough to offset the time-delay in donation. Not that it’s necessarily the wrong thing to do, but it injects a lot more uncertainty into the model that is difficult to quantify.