a 50%+ chance we all die in the next 100 years if we don’t get AGI
I don’t think that’s what he claimed. He said (emphasis added):
if we don’t get AI, I think there’s a 50%+ chance in the next 100 years we end up dead or careening towards Venezuela
Which fits with his earlier sentence about various factors that will “impoverish the world and accelerate its decaying institutional quality”.
(On the other hand, he did say “I expect the future to be short and grim”, not short or grim. So I’m not sure exactly what he was predicting. Perhaps decline → complete vulnerability to whatever existential risk comes along next.)
I don’t think that’s what he claimed. He said (emphasis added):
Which fits with his earlier sentence about various factors that will “impoverish the world and accelerate its decaying institutional quality”.
(On the other hand, he did say “I expect the future to be short and grim”, not short or grim. So I’m not sure exactly what he was predicting. Perhaps decline → complete vulnerability to whatever existential risk comes along next.)