If you succeed at tricking people, you can get them to make mistakes.
What those mistakes are is an interesting issue. There is no argument the mistakes actually have anything to do with the conjunction fallacy. They were simply designed to look like they do.
If you succeed at tricking people, you can get them to make mistakes.
This pretty much is the conjunction fallacy. Facts presented in certain ways will cause people to systematically make mistakes. If people did not have a bias in this respect, these tricks would not work. It is going to be hard to get people to think, “Billy won the science fair and is captain of the football team” is more likely than each statement separately, because the representativeness heuristic is not implicated.
There is no argument the mistakes actually have anything to do with the conjunction fallacy.
I have no idea what this means, unless it’s saying, “I’m right and that’s all there is to say.” This is hardly a useful claim. There appears to be rather overwhelming argument on the part of most of the commenters on this forum and the vast majority of psychologists that there is not only such an argument, but that it is compelling.
If you succeed at tricking people, you can get them to make mistakes.
What those mistakes are is an interesting issue. There is no argument the mistakes actually have anything to do with the conjunction fallacy. They were simply designed to look like they do.
This pretty much is the conjunction fallacy. Facts presented in certain ways will cause people to systematically make mistakes. If people did not have a bias in this respect, these tricks would not work. It is going to be hard to get people to think, “Billy won the science fair and is captain of the football team” is more likely than each statement separately, because the representativeness heuristic is not implicated.
I have no idea what this means, unless it’s saying, “I’m right and that’s all there is to say.” This is hardly a useful claim. There appears to be rather overwhelming argument on the part of most of the commenters on this forum and the vast majority of psychologists that there is not only such an argument, but that it is compelling.