The Q4 results were very good, esp. profitability—adjusted EBITDA was much better then guided for.
The loss ratio of 77% was a huge improvement (12 pt. YoY), however I was expecting even better, perhaps 75% or less.
The main issue is relatively weak 2024 guidance. They expect to grow in-force premium (annualized insurance fees) about 26% by the end of the year. I was expecting much faster acceleration of the growth, closer to 35 or even 40%.
Another mild negative is their cautious communication about loss ratios in Q1 and Q2 (seasonality).
LMND is a small cap and therefore it’s a playground of traders and short seller. The stock is now down about −27% basically deleting the huge gains of the past two weeks. Classic “buy the rumor, sell the news” situation.
Given the slower planned growth there is perhaps less urgency in building a position. However the current price seems attractive long term.
A brief earnings update:
The Q4 results were very good, esp. profitability—adjusted EBITDA was much better then guided for.
The loss ratio of 77% was a huge improvement (12 pt. YoY), however I was expecting even better, perhaps 75% or less.
The main issue is relatively weak 2024 guidance. They expect to grow in-force premium (annualized insurance fees) about 26% by the end of the year. I was expecting much faster acceleration of the growth, closer to 35 or even 40%.
Another mild negative is their cautious communication about loss ratios in Q1 and Q2 (seasonality).
LMND is a small cap and therefore it’s a playground of traders and short seller. The stock is now down about −27% basically deleting the huge gains of the past two weeks. Classic “buy the rumor, sell the news” situation.
Given the slower planned growth there is perhaps less urgency in building a position. However the current price seems attractive long term.