CAIR took a while to release their exit polls. I can see why. These results are hard to believe and don’t quite line up with the actual returns from highly Muslim areas like Dearborn.
We know that Dearborn is ~50% Muslim. Stein got 18% of the vote there, as opposed to the minimum 30% implied by the CAIR exit polls. Also, there are ~200,000 registered Muslim voters in Michigan, but Stein only received ~45,000 votes. These numbers don’t quite add up when you consider that the Green party had a vote share of 0.3% in 2020 and 1.1% in 2016, long before Gaza polarized the Muslim vote. Clearly, non-Muslim were voting for Stein too.
I’m curious how I can best estimate the error of the CAIR exit poll. Any suggestions?
CAIR took a while to release their exit polls. I can see why. These results are hard to believe and don’t quite line up with the actual returns from highly Muslim areas like Dearborn.
We know that Dearborn is ~50% Muslim. Stein got 18% of the vote there, as opposed to the minimum 30% implied by the CAIR exit polls. Also, there are ~200,000 registered Muslim voters in Michigan, but Stein only received ~45,000 votes. These numbers don’t quite add up when you consider that the Green party had a vote share of 0.3% in 2020 and 1.1% in 2016, long before Gaza polarized the Muslim vote. Clearly, non-Muslim were voting for Stein too.
I’m curious how I can best estimate the error of the CAIR exit poll. Any suggestions?