I think Berkeley may, to little fanfare, have achieved herd immunity and elimination of COVID-19. The test positivity rate on this dashboard is 0.22%. I’m having a hard time pinning down exactly what the false-positive rate of COVID-19 PCR is, probably due to the variety of labs and test kits, but a lot of estimates I’ve seen have been higher than that.
I expect people closer to the Berkeley department of health would have better information one way or another. A little caution is warranted in telling people COVID is gone, since unvaccinated people dropping all precautions and emerging en masse would not necessarily be herd immune.
I’m having a hard time pinning down exactly what the false-positive rate of COVID-19 PCR is, probably due to the variety of labs and test kits, but a lot of estimates I’ve seen have been higher than that.
That should make you update towards those estimates being faulty, because they can’t be true and not just round them down.
I don’t think the Berkeley department of health is as stupid as you propose. In cases where the test has a false-positive rate like that I would expect them to test positively tested people another time to make sure that they are actually positive.
I think Berkeley may, to little fanfare, have achieved herd immunity and elimination of COVID-19. The test positivity rate on this dashboard is 0.22%. I’m having a hard time pinning down exactly what the false-positive rate of COVID-19 PCR is, probably due to the variety of labs and test kits, but a lot of estimates I’ve seen have been higher than that.
I expect people closer to the Berkeley department of health would have better information one way or another. A little caution is warranted in telling people COVID is gone, since unvaccinated people dropping all precautions and emerging en masse would not necessarily be herd immune.
That should make you update towards those estimates being faulty, because they can’t be true and not just round them down.
I don’t think the Berkeley department of health is as stupid as you propose. In cases where the test has a false-positive rate like that I would expect them to test positively tested people another time to make sure that they are actually positive.