I think it’s possible the competence of government in a given domain is fairly arbitrary/contingent (with its difficulty being a factor among many others). If true, instead of looking at domains similar to AGI-risk as a reference class, it’d be better to analyse which factors tend to make government more/less competent in general, and use that to inform policy development/advocacy addressing AGI risk.
I think it’s possible the competence of government in a given domain is fairly arbitrary/contingent (with its difficulty being a factor among many others). If true, instead of looking at domains similar to AGI-risk as a reference class, it’d be better to analyse which factors tend to make government more/less competent in general, and use that to inform policy development/advocacy addressing AGI risk.