To answer properly you need to know the prevalence of fever of any kind. In particular, you might use the number of days with fever per year you had last year / 365, for example. If you literally never get a fever for years, I’d worry more then if you did.
Yes, true. The exact numbers are very uncertain, but the qualitative point remains that someone who feels fever many days per winter has less chance of a similar day with fever being from covid than someone with a fever today who has had no fever for over a year.
To answer properly you need to know the prevalence of fever of any kind. In particular, you might use the number of days with fever per year you had last year / 365, for example. If you literally never get a fever for years, I’d worry more then if you did.
P(19coro | fever) = P(fever| 19coro, about 0.5??) * P(19coro, perhaps 0.001??) / P(fever)
Just for clarification P(fever) must include fever which comes from 19coro.
P(fever)=P(fever|othercauses)+P(fever|19coro)
Yes, true. The exact numbers are very uncertain, but the qualitative point remains that someone who feels fever many days per winter has less chance of a similar day with fever being from covid than someone with a fever today who has had no fever for over a year.