I’ve skimmed over it. But I guess I have not written down my thoughts on how the Conjecture fallacy relates to social behavior.
If the following two statements are true:
1. The conjunction fallacy mistake is made mainly because people overly rely on system 1 thinking. 2. Complex social behavior, like deception requires system 2 thinking.
Then the following statement is obviously false:
3. People make the conjecture fallacy mistake because of complex social behavioral reasons.
I think statement 1 and 2 are true, therefore I think 3 is false. But because I think 3 is false does not mean I think that making the cojecture fallacy mistake has no social implications. Someone who knows the default heuristics programmed into humans has advantages over those that don’t in social situations.
People make the Conjecture fallacy mistake for the same reason as when they read the following question:
“A bat and a ball cost $1.10 in total. The bat costs $1.00 more than the ball. How much does the ball cost?”
The first thought that enters your mind is $0.10 cents. That’s your system 1 speaking. If you want to figure out the correct awnser you’ll have to use your system 2. Does the fact that system 1 thinks “$0.10” have social implications? sure. Does system 1 think “$0.10″ because of complex social reasons? I doubt it.
Complex social behavior, like deception requires system 2 thinking.
I don’t think this is true. I’ve definitely told lies that I didn’t think about making. I think an awful lot of complex social behavior is system one—I don’t think most people flirt in system two, for example.
Sure, but the first time you told that lie you probably used system 2 thinking. Your brain might have optimized this process by creating a heuristic and programmed it into system 1, making lying a simple reactionary response. If you’re using only system 1 it’s not conscious deception. You’re not *deciding* anything, it a simple reaction.
As for your example, I think most people with no experience flirt with their system 2, optimizing their thought processes to use the least amount of system 2 as possible. Though you are right that I might have phrased my statement better.
Statement 2 should have been:
Conscious deception uses system 2 thinking. Non conscious deception uses system 1 thinking. Accidental deception uses no thinking (added for completion).
I’ve skimmed over it. But I guess I have not written down my thoughts on how the Conjecture fallacy relates to social behavior.
If the following two statements are true:
1. The conjunction fallacy mistake is made mainly because people overly rely on system 1 thinking.
2. Complex social behavior, like deception requires system 2 thinking.
Then the following statement is obviously false:
3. People make the conjecture fallacy mistake because of complex social behavioral reasons.
I think statement 1 and 2 are true, therefore I think 3 is false. But because I think 3 is false does not mean I think that making the cojecture fallacy mistake has no social implications. Someone who knows the default heuristics programmed into humans has advantages over those that don’t in social situations.
People make the Conjecture fallacy mistake for the same reason as when they read the following question:
“A bat and a ball cost $1.10 in total. The bat costs $1.00 more than the ball. How much does the ball cost?”
The first thought that enters your mind is $0.10 cents. That’s your system 1 speaking. If you want to figure out the correct awnser you’ll have to use your system 2. Does the fact that system 1 thinks “$0.10” have social implications? sure. Does system 1 think “$0.10″ because of complex social reasons? I doubt it.
I don’t think this is true. I’ve definitely told lies that I didn’t think about making. I think an awful lot of complex social behavior is system one—I don’t think most people flirt in system two, for example.
Sure, but the first time you told that lie you probably used system 2 thinking. Your brain might have optimized this process by creating a heuristic and programmed it into system 1, making lying a simple reactionary response. If you’re using only system 1 it’s not conscious deception. You’re not *deciding* anything, it a simple reaction.
As for your example, I think most people with no experience flirt with their system 2, optimizing their thought processes to use the least amount of system 2 as possible. Though you are right that I might have phrased my statement better.
Statement 2 should have been:
Conscious deception uses system 2 thinking. Non conscious deception uses system 1 thinking. Accidental deception uses no thinking (added for completion).
Would be a better statement I think.
What is your goal here? Do you want to find a point of disagreement and try seriously to discuss it persistently over time to a conclusion?
My point is that the statement
*The Law of Least Effort Contributes to the Conjunction Fallacy*
Is false. for the reasons mentioned above.