I think many current goals of AI governance might be actively harmful, because they shift control over AI from the labs to USG.
This note doesn’t include any arguments, but I’m registering this opinion now. For a quick window into my beliefs, I think that labs will be increasing keen to slow scaling, and USG will be increasingly keen to accelerate scaling.
I think it’s a mistake to naïvely extrapolate the current attitudes of labs/governments towards scaling into the near future, e.g. 2027 onwards.
A sketch of one argument:
I expect there will be a firehose of blatant observations that AIs are misaligned/scheming/incorrigible/unsafe — if they indeed are. So I want the decisions around scaling to be made by people exposed to that firehose.
A sketch of another:
Corporations mostly acquire resources by offering services and products that people like. Government mostly acquire resources by coercing their citizens and other countries.
Another:
Coordination between labs seems easier than coordination between governments. The lab employees are pretty similar people, living in the same two cities, working at the same companies, attending the same parties, dating the same people. I think coordination between US and China is much harder.
I think many current goals of AI governance might be actively harmful, because they shift control over AI from the labs to USG.
This note doesn’t include any arguments, but I’m registering this opinion now. For a quick window into my beliefs, I think that labs will be increasing keen to slow scaling, and USG will be increasingly keen to accelerate scaling.
I think it’s a mistake to naïvely extrapolate the current attitudes of labs/governments towards scaling into the near future, e.g. 2027 onwards.
A sketch of one argument:
I expect there will be a firehose of blatant observations that AIs are misaligned/scheming/incorrigible/unsafe — if they indeed are. So I want the decisions around scaling to be made by people exposed to that firehose.
A sketch of another:
Corporations mostly acquire resources by offering services and products that people like. Government mostly acquire resources by coercing their citizens and other countries.
Another:
Coordination between labs seems easier than coordination between governments. The lab employees are pretty similar people, living in the same two cities, working at the same companies, attending the same parties, dating the same people. I think coordination between US and China is much harder.