Rationality when Insulated from Evidence
Basically: How does one pursue the truth when direct engagement with evidence is infeasible?
I came to this question while discussing GMO labeling. In this case I am obviously not in a position to experiment for myself, but furthermore: I do not have the time to build up the bank of background understanding to engage vigorously with the study results themselves. I can look at them with a decent secondary education’s understanding of experimental method, genetics, and biology, but that is the extent of it.
In this situation I usually find myself reduced to weighing the proclamations of authorities:
I review aggregations of authority from one side and then the other—because finding a truly unbiased source for contentious issues is always a challenge, and usually says more about the biases of whoever is anointing the source “unbiased.”
Once I have reviewed the authorities, I do at least some due diligence on each authority so that I can modulate my confidence if a particular authority is often considered partisan on an issue. This too can present a bias spiral checking for bias in the source pillorying the authority as partisan ad infinitum.
Once I have some known degree of confidence in the authorities of both sides, I can form some level of confidence in a statement like: “I am ~x% confident that the scientific consensus is on Y’s side” or “I am ~Z% confident that there is not scientific consensus on Y”
Quick option: Look for other forms of agents you trust. Friends you can outsource some of the research to. Public figures who you can have confidence in their ideas.
I hit the same problem when trying to work out climate change circa 15 years ago. Both sides were quoting different results from the same data sources. I had no idea who to trust.
In the end of that particular problem I decided that it didn’t matter to the extent that it would affect my life either way.
In this case—Can you trust the local regulatory authorities to maintain your interest enough to keep you safe insofar as you can eat anything that hits the shelves but maybe not that new experimental kickstarter-soylent-product (for now).
Also worth pointing out for this instance only: GMO has been around for ~10-20 years now. We are yet to see negatives of the scale predicted by the opposition to GMO. Waiting long enough has yielded evidence of absence of risk.
Other options that come to mind: Have you tried bayesian updates? Write down your original position, stack information on each side and see how strongly you update each way. Then decide if that is enough for you.
(3) Can you devise a test or experiment for the beliefs that you want to hold. Obviously you don’t have the rigour or the time to prove or disprove the risks associated with GMO on your own. But maybe there is something you can do on your own. Even finding a test-able premise, then reading papers relating to it. Is better than nothing.
Thanks for weighing in, Elo. I have learned from this that sometimes providing a concrete example for an abstract problem can be so distracting as to almost completely obscure the problem.
Yes, this has been the crux of my difficulty. I have done my best to follow Bayes Theorem, my prior probability is not a strong factor (I would not be exceptionally shocked one way or the other on this particular issue, so I put my prior probability at 60% for one side), and when I get to evidence updates, I basically only have two decent pieces of evidence “Scientific organizations X, Y, and Z (of C credibility) hold this position” and “Scientific organization A and B (of D credibility) hold this other position.” And then I have “The argumentation for this position is more flawed than this other position.”
That seems to be just about as far as I can get, insulated from direct observation or—as you recommend—experimentation. So I am able to calculate my posterior probability and have some confidence in my approach, but I can’t help but feel unsatisfied about the scope of evidence that brought me to change my position.
Also:
That is strong evidence that GMO does not have observable risks within 10-20 years of adoption, but it is considerably weaker evidence about what GMO adoption looks like after 30, 40, 50 years or a lifetime.
You can replace “GMO” in this sentence with a lot of things. For example, “kiwi”. Or “cell phone”.
Yes, I would agree. And I completely assent that 20 years of evincible safety can be extrapolated into “long term” (however you define that) safety more than 10 years could be. My only position in saying the above is to highlight that “It’s seemed safe so far” doesn’t necessarily prove that to be safe in perpetuity.
Surely you are not arguing that 20 years is the magic asymptote at which safety rises to infinity?
Ain’t no such animal.
I don’t think that looking for forever guarantees is a useful exercise. The point was really the double standard applied to GMOs.
I agree: there is no “forever guarantee,” especially as our life spans increase to experience new problems and our ability to detect problems improves, we discover new things that may be killing us or may have been harming us in the past.
That said: I’m unclear on the double standard you were pointing out. Was it something that I said indirectly? If that is the case, the point of my statement is that we have a longer body of evidence for traditional food engineering (selection, cross-breeding, etc) than we do for direct genetic modification by several orders of magnitude—conservatively: 50 years compared to ~5,000 years. That is A) not to say we haven’t borked up a few times with traditional engineering and B) not to say that GMO are definitively less safe because they are new. It is just to say that we have definitively less evidence on the matter, and 10-20 years—less than half of a lifetime—is not a resounding endorsement.
All that said: I don’t think this is even a particularly significant piece of evidence in the discussion—compared to say: reliable testing standards, risk analysis based upon the changes being introduced rather than the method of introduction, etc—as long as we can agree that 20 years of evident safety does not in itself prove that anything is certainly safe.
My comment was aimed more at one side in the GMO debate rather than specifically at you.
This is not true. First, both “traditional food engineering” and GMO are ridiculously broad terms and it’s hard to say anything meaningful which applies to the whole category. The main issue, however, is that traditional cross-breeding and such perform major genetic surgery, albeit with crude tools. Look e.g. at this—you think it’s the same corn and wheat? The Green Revolution was so successful precisely because it changed the crops grown. The wheat you’re eating is very much not the same thing which was eaten thousands of years ago.
I think you’re drawing two specious conclusions:
First, “traditional food engineering” and GMO do refer to various practices, but there is a very clear distinction of method drawn by those terms. The “traditional” method short circuits natural reproductive process to cultivate desired traits, where as GMO methods entail the direct modification of genes by means external to the reproductive process. To say that repeatedly selecting the largest head of wheat and breeding from that stock is “the same” as injecting new DNA into an organism with a gene gun is absurd in the extreme. They share the same objective, of course, but the method is wholly different.
Second, the Green Revolution was the adoption and expansion of many agricultural practices of which high-yield varieties were one important feature. Obviously, “traditional” methods can have enormous effects. For instance, turning what amounted to an edible grass into a freakish calorie battery. That said, these slow and incremental processes have at least some evolutionary safeguards built into them simply from the time it takes and the holistic, less targeted changes. Once again, we are talking about a difference of method not of objective. The fact that there was a boom of food production prior to GMO does not mean that it is the same as GMO.
The question is why do you care about methods when you should care only about outcomes.
You will note that I said that they have the same “objectives” not necessarily the same “outcomes.”
Granted, I agree that if we have two genetically and biologically identical organisms, one created by traditional methods and one created by direct genetic modification, then no, I would not care at all.
The argument is that—despite sharing the same objective of improving food production for humanity—traditional methods have a lower likelihood of unforeseen negative outcomes due to the rapid and intricate methods by which GMO are altered.
We care about differences of method because of potential differences of outcome.
That argument doesn’t seem persuasive to me. A couple of reasons why: first, I think the “likelihood of unforeseen negative outcomes” in both cases is very vague and uncertain, sufficiently so to make judgement calls about which is lower to be not very credible. Second, in the context of “it’s been fine for 20 years but we’re not sure about the really long term”, I don’t see how the “rapid and intricate” quality is relevant.
I would agree with you that the quoted statement is not terribly persuasive. I was simply encapsulating the actual argument at hand, instead of the straw-man argument of “method versus outcome.” And while the vagueness diminishes the magnitude of the evidence, I don’t believe it makes it non-zero.
To your second point:
I would add to ChristianKI’s apt reply that while conventional modifications via breeding can eventually have monumental effects, direct genetic modification can rapidly—over the course of a single generation—have monumental effects that may have unintended side effects attached to them due to a lack of understanding of the intricacies of genetic interactions.
I can’t find any sense in ChristianKl’s answer, but maybe that’s just me.
My basic problem with your position is that “conventional modifications via breeding” are better described as picking from a set of random mutations those where the phenotype looks appealing. I don’t know why you think it’s a safe method, especially compared with making targeted genetic changes directly.
I completely agree that breeding methods have their own flaws, which we certainly have seen come to dangerous fruition (pun definitely intended).
I also concede that breeding is quite slow in improving a plant, where direct modification would be much faster.
I furthermore agree that direct genetic modification is the future of crop improvement. Given that we better master the techniques and better understand the genomes in play every year, eventually direct gene modification will lack any of the uncertainty that I invoke right now.
But I likewise think it is not unreasonable to say that it is more likely that we would stumble upon a sudden unfortunate side-effect of our modifications by direct modification, because we would lack the evolutionary “safeguards” that have kept biological life going so far.
In any case: I’m clearly not expressing my ideas cogently enough to be productive in this venue, and it’s taken on the whiff of partisan politics. Especially awkward since I am on the same “side” as you: I think there is insufficient evidence to mandate GMO labeling, but I don’t like it when “my side” refuses to engage in what I see as reasonable concerns from the “enemy.” Once again: not productive.
Yes, I understand we’re on the same side. The difference is you think the anti-GMO people have some sort of a case, not quite convincing, but a case. And I think they don’t have a case at all and are engaged in spreading pure FUD. I see no reason to search for middle ground with FUD.
Capabilities of sequencing DNA seems to rise exponentially. Capabilities of making changes via conventional breeding don’t. That results in radically different long-term effects.
Just like the turkey had a lot of evidence for humans being nice to him until the day before thanksgiving.
By the standard that 20 years with a new technology should be enough to see problems with it various techonologies from lead pipes, to cigaretts to asbest, were also proven to be safe.
Without labeling of products it’s also difficult to actually gather the information. I think it’s a bad general argument to say that people shouldn’t know whether they are ingesting X because X isn’t proven to do anything yet.
I think I disagree on these examples. I don’t know that these were all proven safe. And not for very long. Even when they were proven “safe” temporarily, there were some science or medical events that caused concern.
Your idea of “proven-safe” is that they were used for two decades without proof of problems. Those examples fit that standard.
Were they used for two decades without strong evidence of problems while people were looking for such evidence?
They look to me like things that no one had any idea were problematic—until at some point evidence of trouble started to appear, and fairly quickly it became consensus that they were bad. (Possible counterexample—I’m not sure of the dates—is cigarettes, only because there was a very well-funded systematic disinformation campaign conducted by the tobacco companies.)
In the case of GMO, some people have worried (publicly, vocally) about safety from the very beginning. That’s quite different from lead pipes or asbestos or even cigarettes.
The standard should be comparing outcomes in users and non-users after 20 years. The idea is that 20 years is enough to show any effect that exists, and we shouldn’t refrain from adopting the new thing waiting for even more evidence to come in.
Cigarettes, asbestos and leaded water would all show strong effects after 20 years, not as strong as after 50 years, but certainly enough to identify a problem.
Certainly some things have a very delayed effect, but they are very very few compared to things that have a quick effect; most foods that are bad for you show an effect within hours to months. We shouldn’t treat every possible new food as having a significant risk of an effect 30 years later unless there’s a specific reason (plausible mechanism).
Why? Especially when the discussion is not about banning the food but about people’s right to know that they are eating a new food.
But even if that’s true it’s besides the point because GMOs aren’t “a food” but a group of a large amount of different foods.
Letting plants produce poisons to not get eaten by insects suggest to me a plausible mechanism that involves the poison also harming humans.
Because if we’re too suspicious, we pay the opportunity cost of whatever makes it an attractive new food in the first place.
The problem is that this bakes in certain assumptions about what makes a food new in a potentially dangerous way and so requires mandatory labeling.
Agricultural technology is always changing. We don’t require labeling for most of the changes, even though our prior for their potential danger might be much higher than for GMOs. Examples of things that don’t require labeling: which pesticides and antibiotics were used, and in what amounts; what diseases and parasites may have been present; what the storage and transportation conditions were.
For all of these things there are regulatory frameworks. But I can’t think offhand of any examples, other than GMOs, where the legal status is “you may do X, but you have to label it appropriately”. E.g., there’s no “you may use the new pesticide X, but you have to label each piece of fruit sold as being X-positive”. When people want to signal they’re not using something, it’s up to them to label produce as “organic” or “X-free”; everyone else doesn’t have to label theirs as “non-organic”. This difference sends a strong signal to the public that GMOs are presumed to be more dangerous (or risky/unproven) than every other legal agriculture technology.
And, as you point out, generalizing and regulating all GMOs as a group makes no more sense than regulating all pesticides as a group.
I wouldn’t have a problem if we distinguish GMOs into different classes and put the resulting class on the label.
That’s not really true. Ingredient lists require the disclose of many substances that are added to new foods. People have a right to know whether their food contains aspartame.
I would also support requiring big producers to provide that information. Products could have a barcode that can be scanned and the information could be provided via the internet.
Certainly, I agree: there is no reason that we shouldn’t be able to know every detail about the materials and processes that go into our food, but surely you acknowledge the connotative difference between:
“Scan this to see all relevant information”
and
“Governmental authority mandates that we declare this food to contain GMO”
There are issues with compliance costs that make it hard to force disclosure of all information. The compliance costs fo writing GMO wheat instead of wheat on a ingridient box are little.
I would be happy if the companies would have a choice to put up a scan code that provides all relevant information in exchange for not having to write things on the label.
The compliance costs include the costs of tracking the wheat through the processing chain just in case it’s using GMO wheat Monday and non-GMO wheat Tuesday.
Also, mandating the label would make people think that GMO is dangerous, because they would assume that labels are only for things the consumer is supposed to care about .
Would you favor the idea of putting labels on food stating whether it has any ingredients that were picked by illegal immigrants?
I think businesses that sell food products should already track in detail what kind of wheat their suppliers provide.
No. If I look at the ingridients list of the Thai-Soap it tells me that it contains peas, but it’s not something I’m “supposed to care about”. I’m not buying Thai-Soap based on whether or not they contain pea’s and the obligation to provide that information doesn’t imply that the government thinks I should care about it.
That’s like the some US states requiring taxes for illegal drug sales. I don’t think that trying to enforce labeling is the most straightforward way to deal with something that’s illegal.
Why? They know it’s wheat. Why should they be able to track arbitrary characteristics of the wheat? It’s like asking them to track which wheat is grown on Tuesdays, or which wheat is grown by Jews. Their system wouldn’t be set up for it.
Containing peas is a subcase of a general requirement “list all ingredients”. It certainly implies that consumers do and should care about the ingredients.
Using produce picked by illegal immigrants in your product is not itself illegal. Furthermore, it may be that the politicians in charge of the labelling laws are not the same politicians in charge of the border laws, so we might have lax border enforcement while labelling laws are enforced for real.
But anyway, that’s fighting the hypothetical. If you wish, substitute some other politically charged trait that faces right-wing opposition; for instance “this produce comes from a company whose owner has had an abortion”.
Supermarkets where I come from do check characteristics of ingridients like pesticide content. They generally care about providing quality products.
If a supermarket wouldn’t do quality management of their suppliers I would consider that bad.
Information provision is not about whether people should care about it but whether they do. In this case plenty of people do care about.
I don’t see the point of why pointing out that a given example doesn’t work is bad. Don’t make fictional examples that wouldn’t work in reality in the first place, if you want to train reality based reflexes.
Being in touch with reality is a lot more valuable than being in touch with hypotheticals.
Let’s say a business owner asks prospective employees whether they had an abortion and refuses to hire people who had. Do you think that courts would allow that? No, they wouldn’t. They would likely argue that it’s a protected characteristic.
As I said above, I don’t think information about categories that belong to protected characteristics should be required.
But even if you would actually engage with what I’m saying and pick a characteristic of the grower that isn’t a protected characteristic, that’s not about the ingridients of the food. GMO’s do contain different proteins that otherwise wouldn’t be in the product.
That is meaningless unless
“quality management” can refer to arbitrary characteristics, in which case, no, most supermarkets will not keep track of whether the wheat was harvested on Tuesdays, or
You’re assuming that there is something special about GMO such that it counts as “quality management” while whether the wheat was harvested on Tuesdays doesn’t.
I’m pretty sure plenty of people care whether the produce is picked by illegal immigrants, at least to the extent that if they’re told, it would influence their decision. I’m also pretty sure people would care if the company owner is gay, or has had an abortion, or any of a number of politically charged things that we don’t demand should go on labels.
There’s a difference between not working for reasons that affect the point and not working for reasons that don’t. The example is of a politically charged trait. If one politically charged trait isn’t workable, pretend I instead mentioned another that is.
If you don’t think abortion is a good example, change it to “has been disclosed as a campaign donor to a politician of party X” or “has refused to take an IQ test/has tested at an IQ of ___” or whatever politically charged example you think is valid.
This is a good point. But it still stands in contrast to non-disclosure of everything that’s not an ingridient: processes, pesticides, etc. Produce like fruit or raw meat doesn’t have any “ingridiends”.
Why the difference? I lean towards thinking it’s in large part historical, political, and accidental, rather than reflecting any real difference in what’s appropriate or required.
GMO’s are ingridients.
Golden Rice looks different than normal rice, so people who want to buy it can see the difference and make informed decisions about what they want to buy. With a lot of other GMO products that isn’t the case.
That’s technically true, but it misses my point.
Suppose I buy some bread. The label will list “wheat” as an ingredient. There are many varieties of wheat with various genetic differences between them, produced in part by directed breeding. The label won’t say which variety was used, unless the genetic engineering was done by a particular set of modern technologies, in which case it must say it’s GMO.
Clearly, to benefit the customer, the label should list (classes of) genotypical and phenotypical variations, perhaps only those that have been deemed legal-but-potentially-dangerous. Listing the technology used to originally breed that variety is irrelevant, and feeds on a naturalistic fallacy (just like the term “organic food”).
As an aside, all varieties of rice look different. My store stocks long, short, round, brown, red, etc. rice. I have no idea what, if any, the difference is. I wouldn’t pay special attention to a new golden variety if it wasn’t specially labelled.
It’s true that if people want to know something—for whatever reason—then it’s plausible for the government to mandate providing that information. This allows people to buy or boycott food to support various non-health/nutrition-related, but still important, causes.
On the other hand, I’d like government to support many endeavors that are beneficial for everyone as long as they remain secret, but would make people angry if they were widely known. For example, I might support nuclear power, which public opinion is generally against; so I don’t want products to be labelled as ‘made using electricity from nuclear power’.
I feel that in these subjects, like nuclear power, GMOs and organic food, the mainstream public opinion is for or against them not just because it’s misinformed on a factual level, but because people have real preferences for e.g. ‘not eating unnatural food’ even if they believe it’s good for your health.
As we go on in this century the amount of genes that will be different with GMO’s is likely to increase. What kind of shelling point would you propose to decide when people should have to add a label?
In the spirit of informed consent I don’t think that’s reason to withold information from them.
I think that transparancy and free flow of information is vital to dealing with risks arising from new technology. I don’t want government burocrats who think it’s best to keep new technology that has an effect on people secret because the people might not like it.
When a new food hasn’t passed safety demonstrations comparing it to old varieties. Either by demonstrating that it’s chemically the same (i.e. I don’t care if it had an extra gene causing it to grow quicker); or by studies in people, just like for new medicines (the kind of studies that have to prove safety, not to prove efficacy).
Of course, lots of foods introduced throughout history and which keep being introduced today aren’t up to these standards; they just don’t happen to be genetically modified using modern technology, so no-one asks them to demonstrate their safety. I think the difference between what’s required of old and new tech should be smaller.
I shouldn’t have used the word “secret”; I don’t want things to be classified or lied about; I just wish, counterfactually, that such subjects wouldn’t gain widespread public interest. I don’t trust mass public opinion and lobbying over government bureaucrat decision making in technical matters and I’d like to have some combination of transparency with rational decision making.
For almost every product sold, food or otherwise, it’s probably possible to come up with a factually truthful label that would scare away customers. But even socially powerful causes, like that against cruelty to animals, rarely get what they dislike labelled (“this product made with factory farmed chicken”). Shoes aren’t labelled “made in child sweatshops”. Software isn’t labelled “written on the Shabbath”.
I’d like to keep it that way. The political-social game of putting shaming labels on things based on lobbying success can do a lot of harm to everyone if it goes far enough. Labeling requirements should be restricted to a very small set of very clear rules, e.g. those about potentially causing physical harm.
(Btw, I don’t know much about this, but one difference about rices is their starch structures. Different starches hydrolyze to various extents when you cook them, which seems to me to at least matter calorically (the amounts of washed out saccharides will not be the same). I mention this since it’s already a “continue this thread”, so less likely to distract people.)
That’s true, 20 years wouldn’t necessarily bring to light a delayed effect.
However the GMO case is interesting because we have in effect a massive scale natural experiment, where hundreds of millions of people on one continent have eaten lots of GMO food while hundreds of millions on another continent have eaten very little, over a period of 10-15 years. There is also a highly motivated group of people who bring to the public attention even the smallest evidence of harm from GMOs.
While I don’t rule out a harmful long-term effect, GMOs are a long way down on my list of things to worry about, and dropping further over time.
Not really, because the two groups differs in many attributes. You can’t draw any reliable conclusions from that if you don’t know individual consumption. If you could draw that conclusion we could conclude from US bee deaths that GMO’s are bad.
But there also no reason to assume that risk from GMO would be equally distributed among different GMO foods. Letting plants produce poisons so that they won’t get eaten by insects is likely more risky than doing something to improve drought resistance.
Our ability to manipulate organism increases as time goes on. Organisms where multiple genes are added might be more risky than organisms where only a single gene was added.
Valid arguments against early GMO that they spread antibiotic resistance genes also don’t hold against newer GMO’s.
Bioengineered pandemics frequently top the LW census as an X-risk concern. Commerical usage of GMO’s pays for technology development to produce more capabilities on that front.
yes.
One difficulty about GMO specifically is that as you said,
Golden rice—probably fine. Pesticide resistant stuff, probably not as fine for various reasons already published in the public domain.
The problem is when talking about GMO you cover the existing proven bad (and since no longer used) as well as the unproven bad. As well as the good and the unproven good and the neutral. you just talk about GMO. It might help to be more specific. Can you be more specific about what you are calling GMO? And what you are saying is the problem? There is no inherent problem with the concept of GMO (modifying genes). It depends on how you use it (which genes and how you modify).
In a world of labeling I have no problem with having more specific labels for different types of it.
Goodhard’s law is generally a problem when you have strong optimisation tools.
With unlabeled GMO’s the commercial pressure is to create food that is as cheap as possible without regard for whether it’s healthy. If you require labeling than the companies producing the food have incentives to produce healthy food.
GMO’s reduce diversity of agriculture. That produces a systems that generally less robust, for reasons that Nassim Taleb talks about frequently.
Do you believe that people shouldn’t know whether or not their rice has added Vitamin A? I think it’s very worthwhile for people to know about it.
You are jumping topic. GMO risk is different from GMO labeling. However, it is true that labeling nutrition information is good, regardless of GMO status, and that GMO may have more variation in nutritional content (positive and negative) than non-GMO.
No, there are practical healths risks that come from food containing substances that I don’t expect. I might get too much of a certain vitamin if I don’t know that it’s added to my food.
Yes… but this is not an issue of GMO. This is an issue of additives. You should require information that is clearly relevant to health regardless of GMO status. GMOing is a way of adding nutrients, but we would want additives labeled regardless of how they are added.
Or, to put it another way, this is a case where the GMO change is something that should be labeled, because there is a possible effect on health. But the factor under consideration isn’t that it is GMO, it is that it there is an possible effect on health.
No, we don’t want to require everybody who sells an orange to pay for lab tests that determine for every vitamin how much is contained. Making such a requirement would be a death sentence for farmers markets.
A customers has certain expecations about what an natural orange happens to be. It’s a class of objects that shares basic traits. GMO allows giving the orange traits that oranges generally aren’t expected to have.
Any GMO interventions adds new molecules. If you follow that framework, if you add genes that produce 3 new proteins, put those three proteins on the label.
As another example of probably fine GMO, I’ve just come across a review highlighting the urgency of engineering microbes able to assimilate lactose (to use whey and other wastes of dairy industry as substrates for exopolysaccharide synthesis). They also argue for creating (more) efficient EPS-producers culturable on cellulose-containing wastes, although that does seem to me rather more dangerous, on technical glycerole after biodiesel production, etc.
First: check whether the issue is really important: With some exceptions (voting correctly, believing the correct afterlife and not getting sent to hell) If you aren’t in a position to interact with the evidence it’s probably not something you meaningfully have control over. (Most things for which it is important for you to personally understand have measurable consequences to you. Why do you need the right answer to the GMO question, what would you even do with the right answer?).
Then:
-Figure out exactly what the claims really are and try not to conflate different claims (GMOs will do what, exactly?)
-Consider the possibility that the entire premise is silly (“Is God one or trinity?” “Is she a witch?”) and the “consensus” is just wrong and the debate is insane. Generate some plausible third options.
-Check if the two hypotheses seem by your perception to be of roughly equal parsimony, internal logical consistency, and compliance with known evidence, and also check the third options you generated.
-Ask the basic “so, what evidence would you need to tell the difference” questions.
-all the things you mentioned (weigh expert opinions, eliminate bad arguments, eliminate experts who use bad arguments)
-look for concrete predictable things in that area, and adjacent to that area which differ according to the two hypotheses.
-If it’s a political issue, try to find out what people who might plausibly be expertish in the area yet don’t seem to be invested in debating the issue think about it.
-check what known superforcasters in the field think (people who have a track record of successful predictions in that area). Superforecasters need not actually be loudly engaging with the issue, just ask.
-check if people who have different types of knowledge tend to say different things (e.g. economists vs. sociologists)
-What sorts of knowledge would you need to have to answer the question vs. what sorts of knowledge do the experts in question actually have? (You might think medical doctors are qualified to talk about the effectiveness and safety of various treatments, for example, but they aren’t. You want a medical researcher for that. The only difference between a medical doctor and a witch doctor is that one was trained by a curriculum developed by medical researchers and the other wasn’t.)
-check for founder effects or cultural effects biasing beliefs (Again, economists vs sociologists. Also, if theologians believe in god at higher rate than biologists it might not be because of different knowledge)
What else? I mean it’s a big question, you’ve asked after a fairly big chunk of “rationality” there.
Point #2 is a big important point. The media does not select relevant issues, they chose issues that play well to the public. Sometimes these overlap, but often they do not. GMO is a good example, because it is reported as monolithically important, but each genetic modification has to be considered individually; considering GMOs as a unified group is not very useful. Likewise, if you are interested in health and nutrition, you should also look for vegetables that are grown to be nutritious, which includes many GMO but not others: many plants are modified to look better, not be healthier; but many plants are modified to be more nutritious, not look better; etc. Moreover, you can also get some benefit in nutrition by ignoring the GMO debate and looking at things like soil health (organic works as a vague proxy for this, but again, ‘organic’ is a media chosen label, and so is touted as Very Relevant In Every Way and also does not limit itself to soil health) or time-since-harvest (locally grown, proxy, media pollution, etc.)
Thanks, Ishaan. That was a lot of good directions to come at this from.
I especially found a few of them novel ways to eke out more confidence from an insulated problem:
I’ll try to remember those for questions like this in the future.
Furthermore, notion that you raise struck me:
I suppose I’ve never really considered why I wanted the right answer to a question, I suppose I ascribe a relatively high weight to “understand things” in my utility function. That said, thinking about it from the angle of “What would I do with the right answer”: In this case, I would do is embrace/avoid GMO foods for my personal health and safety, vote to label/not-label/ban/regulate GMO, and argue for others to do the same.
Isn’t that the ideal of a democratic system: an informed populace vigorously contesting in the marketplace of ideas?
Yes, that is the ideal, and it’s true that the three consequences you mention are positive consequences (Assuming more effort makes you more likely to arrive at correct answers, which it usually does although I imagine there are diminishing returns past a certain point—you might notice a lot of very smart people putting a lot of effort into politics and still disagreeing.)
The thing is you must weigh information-gathering and evaluation concerning GMOs against every other possible action you could take with those resources.
Let’s focus on the goal which most plausibly requires understanding GMO
Well, let me tell you how i went about researching my personal health and safety:
I researched which foods to eat in general (My conclusions—eat mostly vegetables, meat (try for organ meats and fish), fruits with an overall high fat, low carbohydrate macro-nutrient ratio, avoid vegetable/seed oil, grains. So, in one word, paleolithic. These conclusions are very controversial and I suspect I put in way more effort into researching it than was rationally justified.)
I researched the best way to exercise and learned the techniques (Conclusions: You need to run occasionally and you need to fain flexibility and technique for basic barbell exercises: squat, row, bench, overhead press, etc. I am pretty happy about the time I invested into researching these.)
I’ve put moderate effort into researching basic pesticide avoidance (there are lists of highest pesticide foods you can avoid buying), ethical meat sourcing, and ecologically sustainable fish sourcing. Ultimately I’ve put very little effort into this relative to the first two.)
I’ve skimmed examine.com for potentially helpful supplements (Conclusions: Fish oil, Vit D, Vit K2magnesium (ZMA, don’t use MgO it’s not bioavailable. I probably spent too much time on this.)
GMOs are pretty far down on this list of things which I think are probably important. I haven’t really gotten to them yet.
Do you see where the prioritization issue comes in here? And that’s when your personal health is the main goal. The chance that GMO is high on the priority list in the genre of public dietary health, is in my mind, pretty minuscule. If you narrow your specialization to “regulatory mechanisms concerning food”, then it’ll be worth studying GMOs as one of the branches in your knowledge tree, but probably not before you’ve studied broad stuff about regulatory mechanisms first. (as I understand it, GMOs are not a monolithic thing so it’s more interesting to study start with general stuff about how innovations in food are handled, etc).
You don’t necessarily need to agree with me about prioritization, but you should spend some time thinking about prioritization.
Of course, we all do. But there is a whole world of things, so, which things, and why? Information due to purely Intrinsic interest is malleable
Apart from whether or not GMO’s are healthy we general believe that customers should get information about products that they want to have. We don’t allow artificial diamonds to be sold as naturally mined diamonds, even when De Beers doesn’t have an argument that artifical diamonds are unsafe.
I generally agree with your position, but let me be the devil’s advocate here:
Let’s assume that some fraction of the population are Nazis, and they decide to boycott all Jewish products. Let’s assume there is a general agreement on the definition of “Jewish products” (for example anything produced by a company with a Jewish owner, or using such component). The Nazis express a desire to have all products clearly labeled. Would you support this specific customer right?
Heh.
The idea that products are labeled with the country of origin are quite standard. It’s equivalent to how products made in China can’t be sold as “made in the US”.
Is there a standard simple way to circumvent this rule? Such as establishing a one-employee branch of your company in USA and pretending that the employee did some important finishing touch on your product, before you sell it on the American market?
If you were to read the link carefully, you would notice that the regulations in question prohibit the “Made in Israel” label :-/
For products not made in Israel but in territory that isn’t in Israel according to the UN decisions about what happens to be Israel.
And now go and look at OP again. The EU directive insists on having labels “product from the West Bank (Israeli settlement)” and “product from the West Bank (Palestinian product)”.
The core issue of the conflict is whether “made in Israel” can be written on products that aren’t made in the official territory of Israel as set by the UN.
I don’t think that produces of products labeled “product from the West Bank (Israeli settlement)” want to write “produced in Palestina” on their products, so I see no problem with offering them that label. Furthermore those products simply might not be covered by the trade deals with the Palestianian authority and therefore there might be a need to distinguish them from other West Bank products.
There are clearly layed out categories that by law can’t be used to discriminate people. Religion is among them. I don’t think that information about protect classes has to be provided.