Many people disagreed with that. So, apparently many people believe that inescapable dystopias are not-unlikely? (If you’re one of the people who disagreed with the quote, I’m curious to hear your thoughts on this.)
Steelmanning a position I don’t quite hold: non-extinction AI x-risk scenarios aren’t limited to inescapable dystopias as we imagine them.
“Kill all humans” is certainly an instrumental subgoal of “take control of the future lightcone” and it certainly gains an extra epsilon of resources compared to any form of not literally killing all humans, but it’s not literally required, and there are all sorts of weird things the AGI could prefer to do with humanity instead depending on what kind of godshatter it winds up with, most of which are so far outside the realm of human reckoning that I’m not sure it’s reasonable to call them dystopian. (Far outside Weirdtopia, for that matter.)
It still seems very likely to me that a non-aligned superhuman AGI would kill humanity in the process of taking control of the future lightcone, but I’m not as sure of that as I’m sure that it would take control.
so far outside the realm of human reckoning that I’m not sure it’s reasonable to call them dystopian.
setting aside the question of what to call such scenarios, with what probability do you think the humans[1] in those scenarios would (strongly) prefer to not exist?
I expect AGI to emerge as part of the frontier model training run (and thus get a godshatter of human values), rather than only emerging after fine-tuning by a troll (and get a godshatter of reversed values), so I think “humans modified to be happy with something much cheaper than our CEV” is a more likely endstate than “humans suffering” (though, again, both much less likely than “humans dead”).
One of the main questions on which I’d like to understand others’ views is something like: Conditional on sentient/conscious humans[1] continuing to exist in an x-risk scenario[2], with what probability do you think they will be in an inescapable dystopia[3]?
(My own current guess is that dystopia is very likely.)
Versus e.g. just limited to a small disempowered population, but living in pleasant conditions? Or a large population living in unpleasant conditions, but where everyone at least has the option of suicide?
Many people disagreed with that. So, apparently many people believe that inescapable dystopias are not-unlikely? (If you’re one of the people who disagreed with the quote, I’m curious to hear your thoughts on this.)
Farmed animals are currently inside a non-extinction X-risk.
Steelmanning a position I don’t quite hold: non-extinction AI x-risk scenarios aren’t limited to inescapable dystopias as we imagine them.
“Kill all humans” is certainly an instrumental subgoal of “take control of the future lightcone” and it certainly gains an extra epsilon of resources compared to any form of not literally killing all humans, but it’s not literally required, and there are all sorts of weird things the AGI could prefer to do with humanity instead depending on what kind of godshatter it winds up with, most of which are so far outside the realm of human reckoning that I’m not sure it’s reasonable to call them dystopian. (Far outside Weirdtopia, for that matter.)
It still seems very likely to me that a non-aligned superhuman AGI would kill humanity in the process of taking control of the future lightcone, but I’m not as sure of that as I’m sure that it would take control.
That makes sense; but:
setting aside the question of what to call such scenarios, with what probability do you think the humans[1] in those scenarios would (strongly) prefer to not exist?
or non-human minds, other than the machines/Minds that are in control
I expect AGI to emerge as part of the frontier model training run (and thus get a godshatter of human values), rather than only emerging after fine-tuning by a troll (and get a godshatter of reversed values), so I think “humans modified to be happy with something much cheaper than our CEV” is a more likely endstate than “humans suffering” (though, again, both much less likely than “humans dead”).
One of the main questions on which I’d like to understand others’ views is something like: Conditional on sentient/conscious humans[1] continuing to exist in an x-risk scenario[2], with what probability do you think they will be in an inescapable dystopia[3]?
(My own current guess is that dystopia is very likely.)
or non-human minds, other than the machines/Minds that are in control
as defined by Bostrom, i.e. “the permanent and drastic destruction of [humanity’s] potential for desirable future development”
Versus e.g. just limited to a small disempowered population, but living in pleasant conditions? Or a large population living in unpleasant conditions, but where everyone at least has the option of suicide?