Yes, the peak comes from (1) a relatively high (25%) confidence that current methods will lead to AGI and (2) my view that we’ll achieve Prosaic AGI in a pretty small (~13-year) window if it’s possible, after which it will be quite unlikely that scaling current methods will result in AGI (e.g., due to hitting scaling limits or a fundamental technical problem).
That sharp peak feels really suspicious.
Yes, the peak comes from (1) a relatively high (25%) confidence that current methods will lead to AGI and (2) my view that we’ll achieve Prosaic AGI in a pretty small (~13-year) window if it’s possible, after which it will be quite unlikely that scaling current methods will result in AGI (e.g., due to hitting scaling limits or a fundamental technical problem).